美國《福布斯》傳言中國央行秘密增金4000噸
本報訊（記者井楠）上週，美國《福布斯》雜誌網站刊發了美國版《貨幣戰爭》作者詹姆斯·里卡茲（James Rickards）的觀點：中國央行正在囤積增持黃金，並準備將其用作貨幣戰爭中強有力的武器；預計2014年4月，中國央行將突然宣布擁有5000噸黃金儲備；距離中國央行2009年宣布的1054噸黃金儲備，將有近4000噸的增持。他還認為，中國央行可能不願意公佈其黃金儲備，因為這樣肯定會刺激金價上漲。
央行購金的傳聞由來已久
對於消息的真實性，記者廣泛問詢了業內人士的觀點。由於近3年來，經由中國香港海關進口到內地的黃金數據一直與內地的黃金需求量數據不符（前者每月高於後者3%~10%的幅度），央行購金的傳聞由來已久，因此對於此次4000噸傳聞，多數業內人士表示相信。
業內資深人士認為：“2009年年初公佈的增金400噸的數據，也不是當年增加的，而是幾年裡慢慢累積的。因此，央行即使在增持黃金，也不可能隨時公佈出來，慢慢積累而已。距離2009年已經過去了4年，其間剛好是國際金融危機，央行的數據不可能沒有變化；中國央行的黃金外匯佔比一直比較低，很可能正在不斷增加。當然，實際增加數據無法估計，有可能沒有4000噸這麼多。”
傳聞購金點位可能不低
對於央行到底是什麼點位買進黃金的問題，猜測較多。廣東本地大型珠寶商家的張老闆認為：“按以往慣例，別說是4000噸，就是幾百噸黃金，一國的央行也不可能一蹴而就，都會幾十噸、十幾噸不斷建倉。如果傳言屬實，那麼央行可能是從1800美元以上的較高位置開始買進的。”
廣東省金銀珠寶商會的幾家會員企業認為：如果央行是從2013年大量買進的，那麼非常明智，但可能性不大。而且，傳聞央行購金始自3年之前，剛好是國際金價刷新1920美元歷史高位之際，而2013年1月之前，金價尚在1650美元以上位置波動；如果3年裡不斷買進，其平均價位無論如何也不可能在1700美元之下。
金市影響
傳聞若屬實金價可能很快突破1500美元
2009年11月，印度央行曾從國際貨幣基金組織那裡購買了200噸黃金，短時間裡推動國際金價上漲了15%。中央財經大學學者預期：一旦中國買金傳言屬實（且數額遠遠超過了200噸），有可能迅速短線推高金價反彈到1500美元以上的位置（距離目前位置約為15%），或能重啟牛市。
但即便傳聞屬實，是否能改變金價的命運，依然要看國際金融機構的態度：前期不斷打壓之後，是否已經盆滿缽滿？是否有意反手做多？大國政府與國際投行才享有黃金的實際定價權。中國“大媽”也好，央行也罷，買賣黃金多少，只能起到支撐金價的作用，無法改變中長線趨勢。
也可能是“陰謀” 需要警惕國際投行“借題發揮”
不過，據了解，《福布斯》雜誌社與國際金融寡頭、華爾街勢力關係密切，此次有關中國買金4000噸的傳聞出自其口中，值得機構和投資者玩味。不排除兩個可能性：一，國際投行為“反手做多”，操作釋放信號，借中國買金事件發揮；二，國際投行仍想進一步打壓金價至1050美元下方，希望榨出全球散戶更多的錢來。無論是前者還是後者，都值得中國“大媽”提防。
商品大王羅傑斯看好黃金已是公開的秘密，昨日他更在閃電訪港旅程中向投資者派錦囊。羅傑斯昨稱，短期內金價有機會再向下尋底，但長遠依然看好金價。羅傑斯更透露，早前在約每盎斯1,200美元價位增持黃金，主因他相信十年內金價會再破頂。
羅傑斯昨出席民生金幣新舖開幕禮時表示，是次逗留將僅僅多於24小時，但卻毫不吝嗇大派投資錦囊。他表示，現時環球貨幣市場出現不少異動，影響了金價走勢，更直指短時間內金價有可能會再向下，惟他強調，下跌空間相當有限，當金價跌至1,100美元時將會繼續增持。
國債高企 美元難走強
早前股神畢菲特曾表示，即使金價跌至800美元亦不會沾手，與股神同屬長遠投資派的羅傑斯卻繼續看好黃金。羅傑斯笑稱，早前於約1,200美元價位增持了黃金，相信五至十年後金價可再創新高。他解釋稱，美國持續負債高企，將對美元前景造成壓力，保值的黃金將再受追捧。事實上，金價在短期觸及1,200美元後已出現強勁反彈，上周更收報1,296.1美元，直撲1,300美元大關。
對於近期金價大跌，羅傑斯表示，純粹因國際資金為避險而湧入美元，令金價下跌，但他強調，在別人恐慌時買貨就是好的投資，亦相信美元因美國國債高企而難以長期走強，故繼續唱好黃金。
倡買入糖 看好前景
看好金價前景的不止商品大王，金銀業貿易場理事鄺德成亦持相同口徑指，雖然近月國際金價低迷，但現貨金需求卻未見中斷，相信未來一兩個月內，當中國及印度進入嫁娶旺季後，金價將可穩步上揚。「內地客有穩定需求，（黃金）現貨供應一緊，肯定對個（金）價有影響。」他又指，金價已經見底，相信短期可企穩1,200美元水平，但估計即使金價重拾升軌，亦難以升穿1,500美元水平。
除黃金外，羅傑斯重提其看好農務的看法，今次更唱好糖的前景。羅傑斯笑稱，倘民生錢幣有提供咖啡，他將會「袋起包糖」為日後提供升值機會。他解釋稱，糖期貨價格現仍在低位，提供了吸引的投資價值，棉花同樣在相當低廉價位，相信兩者在日後會升值不少。
事實上，早前羅傑斯已表示農務將成為日後經濟發展趨勢，更預言金融業將失去光環及爆出裁員潮，故呼籲大學生選修農務系。
聯儲局主席伯南克在接受參議院銀行委員會質詢時表示，金價下跌的原因之一，是投資者認為經濟面臨極端情況、尤其是負面後果的機率降低，而相關的避險需求也隨之減少。
他又稱，許多人持有黃金是為對抗通脹，但金價的走勢其實很難對通脹作出正確的預估；他指出，沒有人能夠真正理解黃金價格，而他也不會假裝自己理解金價。
黃金現貨價今年以來已重挫逾23%。金價與美元一向呈現反向走勢，而美元近來走升也成為金價重挫的原因之一。伯南克日前在國家經濟研究局(NBER)發表談話時表示，美元近期走勢還算可以，提振美國出口活動並非央行的政策目標。
今天在中環恆生銀行，購買2個1盎司澳洲鴻運金幣
HK$9,950 x 2 = HK$19,900
Today one of the savviest and well connected hedge fund managers in the world told King World News the price damage in gold and silver “is almost beyond belief at this point.” Outspoken Hong Kong hedge fund manager William Kaye also warned KWN that a “criminal” syndicate of banks has now positioned themselves for a massive and spectacular rise in the price of gold and silver, and his firm’s money is long metals for the ride. Kaye, who 25 years ago worked for Goldman Sachs in mergers and acquisitions, had this to say in this remarkable interview.
Eric King: “Bill, your thoughts on this continued smash in gold and silver that we are seeing?”
Kaye: “It’s more of the same, Eric, that we talked about last time. They choose the thinnest sections of trading in gold, Asia time, for most of the smash. Most of the price damage was done overnight in the United States during Asian trading.
They took the price of gold down to levels that we haven’t seen for years....
“As I talk to you now we are now trading in the $1,220s, which is a new multi-year low. So the bulk of the damage was done in two time periods: In Asian trading and in equally thin Chicago (COMEX) trading, when most of the real players have already gone home.
The price damage is almost beyond belief at this point. Two years ago we were above $1,900 on gold and rightfully so given all of the events that were occurring and are still occurring. Now we are in the mid-$1,220s, which given the policy response to what is an ongoing crisis, is incomprehensible.
No one can make any logical sense of what has taken place because the currency wars that are fully underway everywhere in the world justify gold prices that are not only higher than they were two years ago (above $1,900), but they justify prices in our view that would clearly be above $2,000 and maybe even above $3,000.
Those prices I am giving you are the prices gold should be trading at today. Meaning they are not looking out on to the horizon because the money printing that is going on is not going to stop tomorrow. In fact it’s going to continue and if anything, in our view it will accelerate.
So the only thing that can explain the price behavior in gold has to be a concerted raid. What is of particular interest is that this manipulation really has to be the Fed, or coordinated intervention with the other central banks, including the ECB. The reason for this is because it’s very clear, if you pay attention to Andrew Maguire on KWN, that the bullion banks who were very short when this raid commenced in mid-April, are now long, and some are very long.
So the setup here is pretty fantastic. For people that are looking to add to their positions, we are certainly at levels now that look absolutely compelling, and levels that we may not revisit again in my lifetime.”
Kaye also added: “I strongly believe this is being done to create even more outsized profits for the bullion banks. We had a very controversial recapitalization of the banks, similar to what occurred in the 1930s in the United States, and most of the world at that time was on a gold standard.
The only way the banksters could get recapitalized during that era (of the 1930s) was by the re-pricing of gold itself. KWN readers have to remember that gold was re-priced from $20.67 to $35, but that was only after an executive order forced U.S. citizens to turn in all of their gold to the nearest Federal Reserve branch. So the Federal Reserve banks, which are owned by the big commercial banks, got recapitalized through that mechanism.
A similar thing is happening once again. First we had the overt bailouts which was in plain sight in 2008 because the entire banking system was bankrupt. So hundreds of billions of dollars was wasted on recapitalizing these criminal institutions, these big banks.
More recently, because of the default of ABN AMRO, it was obvious that not only was there a lack of physical gold in the system, but the system was on the brink of collapse. And ABN AMRO, one of the largest bullion banks, absolutely did default.
So to prevent wholesale defaults by JP Morgan and everyone else, this raid was commenced. The bullion banks have now gone from net-short gold, and like ABN AMRO -- at risk of defaulting, to now being very long gold. And because they are long, our thinking is that we should also be long. Anyone looking to add to their position, this to us is an extremely good opportunity because the only group that seems to be pushing things lower are these central banks.
So the central banks are simply creating a setup where they can covertly recapitalize their member institutions, which are the very people who own them (the central banks). Don’t forget that 100% of the stock of the Federal Reserve system of the United States is owned by these criminal banks. And they are now in a position to benefit from rising prices in both gold and silver. We have positioned ourselves so that we will benefit as well when that price rise occurs, and we think it’s coming very soon.”
.jpg)
.jpg)