上周,德意志央行官網一則輕描淡寫的新聞通稿,暴露了一個金融大動向。德國聯邦銀行表示,原定2020年完成的海外黃金儲備轉移計劃預計提前三年,於今年底完成。
數據顯示,德國目前共擁有3378公噸黃金儲備,是世界第二大官方黃金儲備量。為了從美國、英國、法國三地運送黃金儲備回家,德國已靡費690萬歐元。
為何德國不惜代價讓黃金回家?
明面上看,是為了回應民眾關於「紐約金庫中的德國金條已經消失」的疑慮。有分析認為,從局勢上看,德國如此急迫地讓黃金回家,一方面是為歐盟解體後發行馬克做準備;另一方面,德國也許不再信任美國人了。
紐約聯儲搞什麼鬼
從1951年起,德國聯邦銀行的前身——德意志各邦銀行建立黃金儲備。在20世紀50年代和60年代,德國黃金儲備快速擴大。
冷戰時期,德國人擔心蘇聯入侵,將黃金儲備分散存放在美英法的中央銀行。其中,374噸存放在巴黎,450噸存放在倫敦,1500噸存放在紐約。
經濟歷史學家阿貝斯豪瑟認為,20世紀50年代末、60年代初,經濟上,德國對英、法、美積累了大量的外貿順差。政治上,德國需要英法美這些昔日佔領國的軍事保護。
按照阿貝斯豪瑟的說法,為了換得英法美的軍事保護,德國與英法美可能還有一個「君子協定」,即這幾個國家在周轉不開的時候,可以私下挪用一些德國存放的黃金儲備。
冷戰時期,在「萊茵河西岸」以及儘可能遠離國界的地方存放德國黃金,從安全的角度看,順理成章。可是,柏林圍牆倒塌後,這一狀況依舊。
對此,德國民眾不理解,甚至懷疑,「德國央行遲遲不將黃金儲備運回國內,是不是因為部分黃金其實已經下落不明。」
德國當局對於不把所有黃金儲備搬回法蘭克福的解釋是,把金條存放在外國比存在本國,成本更低。
這個解釋似乎合理。德國每年向英國央行繳納50萬歐元金條保管費,但如果把金條運回德國,不僅要修建固若金湯的金庫,還要派專人看守,費用更高。而紐約聯邦儲備銀行金庫是免費給德國用。
對於民眾提出的金條是不是消失了,德國央行說,美國、英國和法國的央行每年都會向德國央行提供書面證明金條都還存在,而且質量沒變。但問題是,這些書面證明只是個書面證明。
德國央行為什麼不派人查看呢?派了,但是美聯儲多次拒絕德國央行委派人員的檢查,理由是「不安全」。
可是,全世界的遊客只要提前申請,就可以坐電梯來到位於曼哈頓下城的紐約聯儲銀行地下5層的金庫內參觀,遊客甚至可以站在140噸重、固定在混凝土上的鋼製保險門前合影。
沒有黃金儲備的,可以參觀;有黃金儲備的,不可以查看。德國人覺得不可思議。
經過多年申請,2007年,德國央行官員終於被允許在一個特殊的接待室裏面,看到一部分德國金條。2011年,德國官員獲准看一眼九個儲藏德國黃金的儲藏室中的一個。在那裏,金條被密密麻麻地疊放,德國人抽出來幾根稱了稱重量。至於稱重結果,應紐約聯儲的要求,報告內容被人為塗黑了。
德國央行也有貓膩
德國人不幹了,自發成立的一個GATA夥伴組織「Repatriate Our GOLD」(返還我們的黃金)質疑稱:德國儲存在美國金庫里的黃金儲備僅僅是黃金信用而已,實物早已失蹤。
2012年,德央行首次公佈黃金儲備詳細數據,總黃金儲備量為3396噸金條,總市值1440億歐元,近七成存在外國央行。其中,1536噸(45%)存放在美聯儲的紐約金庫里,450噸(13%)在倫敦的英國央行,374噸(11%)在巴黎的法國央行,只有1036噸(31%)金條放在法蘭克福金庫。
德國媒體表示,將近七成的黃金存在國外很荒唐。德國民眾掀起了一場要求「黃金回家」的運動。德國媒體和德國議會要求,德國央行從紐約取回部分金條,檢驗成色。保證德國的金條足額真實,而不是鍍金的鎢塊。
經歷媒體和政界的口誅筆伐後,2013年初,德國聯邦銀行(BundesBAnk)宣佈,開始將部分黃金儲備轉移回國,計劃到2020年在法蘭克福儲存50%的黃金,在紐約聯儲金庫中儲存37%的黃金,在倫敦金庫中儲存13%的黃金。
原以為風波就此平息,哪曾想問題又來了。
德國人如何運這些黃金?
歐洲央行管委兼德國央行行長魏德曼這樣說,一家安全公司會將一部分每塊重12.5千克的金條熔化,然後通過飛機和載重汽車運往法蘭克福。
為什麼需要熔化金條?如果確實要熔化,為什麼不能等到金條抵達法蘭克福後再熔化?
德國央行有關人員回復稱,一方面,這是德國央行新的儲備理念,熔化再鑄金條的目的是讓金條符合LGD(London Good Delivery)標準,另一方面,熔化金條為保證運輸安全和有關工作人員的安全。
這樣的回答顯然不能令民眾滿意,德國貴金屬協會主席Peter BoehrinGEr表示,德國央行的回覆不透明且很奇怪,「1950-1960年的原始金條其實從未被證實存在過,因為出版物上沒有它們的照片。就算它們存在,德國央行沒有理由選擇在紐約而非法蘭克福融化金條。」但是,德國央行說,我們只能提供這麼多信息。
有一種觀點認為,德國人存放在紐約聯儲的金條被挪用過。
莫斯科國際關係學院國際金融部專家Katasonov暗示,美國把德國的黃金為自己所用,「有跡象顯示,當德國要求轉運黃金時,黃金並不是以實物形式存放在紐約金庫中。當然,美國還是把黃金返還給了德國,不過,其中有個有趣的細節。當你寄存完箱子再去取的時候,當然以為會取到當初寄存的那個,但是德國取到的卻是別人的箱子。」
根據Katasonov所說,德國聯邦銀行取回的黃金上有着不同的商標,「美國可能用從市場上購買的黃金取代了原先德國寄存着的黃金」。
為重新發行馬克準備
儘管質疑不斷,德國央行運黃金的事情進展還是很順利。
從2013年開始,德國央行開始分別從美國紐約和法國巴黎運回黃金300公噸和374公噸。2月15日,德國央行發佈公告表示,德國央行2016年已將216公噸(約238噸)黃金儲備運回法蘭克福,其中111公噸從美國紐約運回,105公噸從法國巴黎運回,原計劃2020年完成轉移的目標,實施進度超預期。德國央行委員表示,央行將按計劃完成今年的黃金儲備轉移目標。
德國如此神速推動「黃金回國」運動,被外界認為不同尋常。
「債券之王」格羅斯(Bill Gross)通過推特發問,德國從紐約和巴黎運回黃金,是否意味着世界各大央行已經不再彼此信任?
路透社引述專家分析,德國如此着急搬回黃金,可能是要留一手,「預備在法國脫歐、歐盟解體的情況下,用黃金儲備作擔保重新發行德國馬克」。
CNBC認為,這聽起來像是「不着邊際的瘋狂預言」,但並非危言聳聽。
首先看歐元區政治局勢。
2016年,英國脫歐。2017年4月,法國大選。外界擔心,堅決主張法國脫歐、被視為「女版」特朗普的極右派領袖勒龐(Marine Le Pen)當選總統,對歐盟的破壞力巨大。
其次,看德國人的態度。
德國對歐元區前景憂心忡忡,還表現在歐元區的貨幣政策僵化,將迫使德國失業率上升、工資水平低、競爭力弱,經濟持續不景氣最終會導致國家分裂。此外,德國人一方面要努力償還危機時期欠下的債務,一方面還要支持歐洲其他弱勢的經濟體,這也成為了德國人不滿的源泉。
最後,看看其它歐元區央行的行動。
除了德國,奧地利和荷蘭也在把自家黃金儲備從海外運回。據英文網站Zerohedge報道,歐洲國家的中央銀行正把儲存在海外的黃金運回自己的國家或附近的地方。從兩年前開始,便有這個跡象,尤其是荷蘭、德國和奧地利央行在過去幾個月從英格蘭銀行和美聯儲運回黃金。據報道,2014年,荷蘭從紐約運回122噸黃金儲備,2016年5月,瑞士把絕大部分儲存在海外的黃金運回國。
有評論認為,這釋放了一個信號,即各國央行正在為金融危機和原材料危機做準備。
不再信任美國
美國紐約聯邦儲備銀行保管庫被稱為「世界上最安全的倉庫」,有60個國家、佔全球近1/4的黃金儲備存放於此。
為什麼大家都會將黃金儲備安放於此?
紐約聯邦儲備銀行之所以能成為全球官方黃金儲備的中心,是因為紐約是全球黃金的交易中心。二戰後,全球推行布雷頓森林體系,美元直接與黃金掛鈎,各國貨幣與美元掛鈎,並可按35美元一盎司的官價向美國兌換黃金。在此體系下,紐約逐漸成為了全球黃金交易中心。再加上黃金的運輸和儲備不易,為省去交易和儲備的麻煩,各國也願意將黃金儲存於美國。隨後布雷頓森林體系雖然瓦解了,但黃金卻留在了美國。截至2007年,美國紐約聯邦儲備銀行放了6606噸黃金。
隨着次貸危機出現,2007年3月開始,外國央行開始連續從紐約聯儲金庫中運回黃金。需要注意的是,從2014年2月開始,每個月都有黃金被贖回。
2007年,紐約聯儲黃金儲備一直維持在6606噸。2016年前7個月,有87噸黃金被贖回,比2015年同期的68噸多了25%,比2014年全年的55噸多了60%。截至目前,紐約聯儲黃金儲備已經降至5807噸,距2007年贖回潮開始之前的6606噸已經下降12%,未來這一趨勢恐將持續。
是美國不值得信任了嗎?
德國央行執行理事會成員蒂勒(CArl-Ludwig Thiele)否認了這種說法:「我們對美國總統特朗普進行了很多討論,包括他對貨幣政策、宏觀經濟等的影響,但我們信任美聯儲。特朗普因素不影響我們在紐約的黃金儲備計劃。」
儘管這樣,市場還是充斥着對美國總統特朗普及新政府可能帶來的不確定性情緒。
今年以來,黃金價格已累計上漲近7%,一定程度上是因為市場對美國新政府感到不安。Independent Strategy公司擁有約45年市場經驗的全球策略師大衛·羅切(David Roche)表示,圍繞特朗普所引發的政治風險將使更多投資人追求避險,預計金價將於今年底攀升約6%,將升至每盎司1300美元,但多數資產如債券將出現負面報酬。
以德國為例,特朗普最高貿易顧問曾表示,德國正利用「嚴重低估」的歐元佔美國及其歐盟夥伴的便宜。
如此表態,怎能不令德國政府多上一根弦?
Showing posts with label 德國央行. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 德國央行. Show all posts
Monday, 20 February 2017
Thursday, 26 March 2015
德國央行高管：德國取回黃金行動仍順利進行
德國央行[微博]市場副主管Henner Asche在近日稱，德國央行取回黃金( 1132.30 , -11.60 , -1.01% )的行動仍然在順利進行中。
自從德國央行宣布要從海外取回自己的黃金儲備以來，已經差不多兩年過去了。
Asche說：“總體來說，我們對黃金的轉移是滿意的。”
據世界黃金協會(WGC)的數據顯示，目前德國是全球排名第二的黃金儲備國，總共持有黃金3384.2噸。
德國央行在海外的黃金儲備散佈在巴黎、倫敦和紐約。Asche稱，其中1447噸被放在紐約聯儲、438噸被放在英格蘭銀行，還有307噸在法蘭西銀行。
Asche表示，到目前為止，有67噸黃金被從巴黎運回法蘭克福，有90噸黃金從紐約運回法蘭克福。德國的黃金取回計劃中，要在2020年前將其一半的黃金儲備運至法蘭克福存儲。
在2013年，德國央行宣布將取回在巴黎和紐約的674噸黃金。市場對此有諸多猜測，其中很大猜測是德國對其存於海外黃金的安全的懷疑。
Asche表示，取回黃金100%是德國央行自己的決定，沒有任何政治壓力。“德國政府並不擁有這些儲備。”並且他表示，取回黃金並不是因為德國對存在美聯儲的黃金是否還存在有所懷疑。
在2013年僅僅從紐約取回了5噸黃金後，曾經有大量質疑，但2014年德國央行即拿回了85噸黃金。
Asche表示，之所以不把存於海外的黃金都運回來是因為一旦德國央行決定要用黃金來換現金或者外匯，那麼紐約提供了便利。
Asche稱，取回的黃金都被重新熔鑄成符合倫敦黃金交割標準的金條，國際清算銀行(BIS)會做現場監督。
“在德國，大家都很關心黃金儲備的新聞，德國公眾對央行的黃金儲備表示滿意。”
自從德國央行宣布要從海外取回自己的黃金儲備以來，已經差不多兩年過去了。
Asche說：“總體來說，我們對黃金的轉移是滿意的。”
據世界黃金協會(WGC)的數據顯示，目前德國是全球排名第二的黃金儲備國，總共持有黃金3384.2噸。
德國央行在海外的黃金儲備散佈在巴黎、倫敦和紐約。Asche稱，其中1447噸被放在紐約聯儲、438噸被放在英格蘭銀行，還有307噸在法蘭西銀行。
Asche表示，到目前為止，有67噸黃金被從巴黎運回法蘭克福，有90噸黃金從紐約運回法蘭克福。德國的黃金取回計劃中，要在2020年前將其一半的黃金儲備運至法蘭克福存儲。
在2013年，德國央行宣布將取回在巴黎和紐約的674噸黃金。市場對此有諸多猜測，其中很大猜測是德國對其存於海外黃金的安全的懷疑。
Asche表示，取回黃金100%是德國央行自己的決定，沒有任何政治壓力。“德國政府並不擁有這些儲備。”並且他表示，取回黃金並不是因為德國對存在美聯儲的黃金是否還存在有所懷疑。
在2013年僅僅從紐約取回了5噸黃金後，曾經有大量質疑，但2014年德國央行即拿回了85噸黃金。
Asche表示，之所以不把存於海外的黃金都運回來是因為一旦德國央行決定要用黃金來換現金或者外匯，那麼紐約提供了便利。
Asche稱，取回的黃金都被重新熔鑄成符合倫敦黃金交割標準的金條，國際清算銀行(BIS)會做現場監督。
“在德國，大家都很關心黃金儲備的新聞，德國公眾對央行的黃金儲備表示滿意。”
Monday, 9 February 2015
揭秘歐版QE和歐洲黃金回家行動背後的邏輯
歐洲各國再一次想到了一塊兒：一場如火如荼的“黃金回家”行動正在引起越來越多歐洲國家的興趣。而在不久前，歐洲宣布每月購買600億歐元債券，宣告歐版QE時代的真正來臨。
黃金向來是聞QE就欲起舞。歐版QE和歐洲“黃金回家”行動背後又有著怎樣的邏輯和聯繫？
歐洲“黃金回家”行動如火如荼
2月4日比利時公共廣播RTBF報導稱，比利時計劃將存儲在英國的200噸黃金遣返回國。由於考慮到安保問題，具體的取回時間被保密。但報導中提到具體的遣返細節：稱將由50名士兵和一架直升飛機參與運輸。
比利時存在英國的這200噸黃金價值約70億美元，目前被存放於地下65英尺深、3尺厚的金庫中。
追根溯源，在上世紀30年代，比利時為了防止納粹獲得黃金，將自己的黃金儲備存到了英國，比利時為這些黃金每年支付28萬美元的金庫租賃費。
作為最早提出自“黃金回家”行動計劃的國家，德國2014年從國外運回120噸黃金儲備，其中35噸來自巴黎，85噸來自紐約。加上2013年取回量，到目前為止，德國一共運回了157噸黃金，67噸來自巴黎，90噸來自紐約。
德國是全球僅次於美國的第二大黃金儲備國，最新數據顯示，德國央行官方持有黃金儲備達3391噸。
2013年，德國央行決定將在2020年之前，取回存在海外黃金中的674噸黃金儲備。正是德國的這一決定，拉開了歐洲“黃金回家”計劃的序幕。
中國經濟網記者統計發現，之後不斷有歐洲國家跟隨德國腳步，走上德國相同的道路。
2014年11月21日，荷蘭中央銀行稱，該行近期從紐約提取被保管的122.5噸黃金並將其運回了阿姆斯特丹。
此外，還有消息稱奧地利也有計劃將其存放在英格蘭銀行的黃金儲備運回國內。去年11月，法國右翼政黨國民陣線的領導人勒龐(Marine Le Pen)向法國央行發信，要求法國取回存在海外的黃金，並停止出售，還要求動用外匯儲備購買黃金。去年曾鬧得沸沸揚揚但最終未獲通過的的瑞士黃金公投也是要求所有持有的黃金都必須存於瑞士國內。
歐版QE時代來臨
歐洲這麼多國家紛紛加入“黃金回家”行動，不禁讓外界思考這背後的深藏的邏輯。有一種市場解讀稱這表明當前貨幣金融體系存在的信任危機。
對於這種解讀市場不一定都認同，可是不能否認的事實是歐洲確實在2015年宣布了原超投資者預期的量化寬鬆政策。
歐洲央行央行馬里奧？德拉吉(Mario Draghi)1月22日宣布，將從3月起每月購買600億歐元的歐元區債券，持續到2016年9月，除非歐元區通脹回升接近2%，將會停止購債。
市場預計，如果該計劃持續到明年9月的話，總規模將達到1.14萬億歐元。
對於歐版QE時代的來臨，摩根士丹利解讀稱，歐元區一如市場預期推出QE，這對歐元來說已經造成根本性利空。
大摩稱，歐元跌勢還受到其他三方面製約：首先，歐元區不斷出現資金外流。其次，歐元越來越多的地被當作融資貨幣來使用。再者，因歐元貶值厲害，各大央行外匯儲備中歐元占比也在不斷下降。這些綜合因素或促使歐元繼續延續跌勢。
瑞銀也在分析研報中指出，歐版QE會給全球的金融市場帶來全方位的影響和後續效應。瑞銀除了表示歐版QE將利空歐元外，還指出黃金是QE的最大受益者。
或許正是因為歐版QE時代的來臨，歐元貶值成為無可避免的事實，這個時候將硬通貨黃金放在“家”裡，歐洲會更心安嗎？
荷蘭央行運回黃金後向外界發布的聲明對此給出了肯定的回答：“通過本次調整，荷蘭央行加入其他央行，將更多的黃金儲備保存在國內。這樣做除了更好地平衡分配黃金儲備，也可以起到提高公眾信心的效果。”
黃金向來是聞QE就欲起舞。歐版QE和歐洲“黃金回家”行動背後又有著怎樣的邏輯和聯繫？
歐洲“黃金回家”行動如火如荼
2月4日比利時公共廣播RTBF報導稱，比利時計劃將存儲在英國的200噸黃金遣返回國。由於考慮到安保問題，具體的取回時間被保密。但報導中提到具體的遣返細節：稱將由50名士兵和一架直升飛機參與運輸。
比利時存在英國的這200噸黃金價值約70億美元，目前被存放於地下65英尺深、3尺厚的金庫中。
追根溯源，在上世紀30年代，比利時為了防止納粹獲得黃金，將自己的黃金儲備存到了英國，比利時為這些黃金每年支付28萬美元的金庫租賃費。
作為最早提出自“黃金回家”行動計劃的國家，德國2014年從國外運回120噸黃金儲備，其中35噸來自巴黎，85噸來自紐約。加上2013年取回量，到目前為止，德國一共運回了157噸黃金，67噸來自巴黎，90噸來自紐約。
德國是全球僅次於美國的第二大黃金儲備國，最新數據顯示，德國央行官方持有黃金儲備達3391噸。
2013年，德國央行決定將在2020年之前，取回存在海外黃金中的674噸黃金儲備。正是德國的這一決定，拉開了歐洲“黃金回家”計劃的序幕。
中國經濟網記者統計發現，之後不斷有歐洲國家跟隨德國腳步，走上德國相同的道路。
2014年11月21日，荷蘭中央銀行稱，該行近期從紐約提取被保管的122.5噸黃金並將其運回了阿姆斯特丹。
此外，還有消息稱奧地利也有計劃將其存放在英格蘭銀行的黃金儲備運回國內。去年11月，法國右翼政黨國民陣線的領導人勒龐(Marine Le Pen)向法國央行發信，要求法國取回存在海外的黃金，並停止出售，還要求動用外匯儲備購買黃金。去年曾鬧得沸沸揚揚但最終未獲通過的的瑞士黃金公投也是要求所有持有的黃金都必須存於瑞士國內。
歐版QE時代來臨
歐洲這麼多國家紛紛加入“黃金回家”行動，不禁讓外界思考這背後的深藏的邏輯。有一種市場解讀稱這表明當前貨幣金融體系存在的信任危機。
對於這種解讀市場不一定都認同，可是不能否認的事實是歐洲確實在2015年宣布了原超投資者預期的量化寬鬆政策。
歐洲央行央行馬里奧？德拉吉(Mario Draghi)1月22日宣布，將從3月起每月購買600億歐元的歐元區債券，持續到2016年9月，除非歐元區通脹回升接近2%，將會停止購債。
市場預計，如果該計劃持續到明年9月的話，總規模將達到1.14萬億歐元。
對於歐版QE時代的來臨，摩根士丹利解讀稱，歐元區一如市場預期推出QE，這對歐元來說已經造成根本性利空。
大摩稱，歐元跌勢還受到其他三方面製約：首先，歐元區不斷出現資金外流。其次，歐元越來越多的地被當作融資貨幣來使用。再者，因歐元貶值厲害，各大央行外匯儲備中歐元占比也在不斷下降。這些綜合因素或促使歐元繼續延續跌勢。
瑞銀也在分析研報中指出，歐版QE會給全球的金融市場帶來全方位的影響和後續效應。瑞銀除了表示歐版QE將利空歐元外，還指出黃金是QE的最大受益者。
或許正是因為歐版QE時代的來臨，歐元貶值成為無可避免的事實，這個時候將硬通貨黃金放在“家”裡，歐洲會更心安嗎？
荷蘭央行運回黃金後向外界發布的聲明對此給出了肯定的回答：“通過本次調整，荷蘭央行加入其他央行，將更多的黃金儲備保存在國內。這樣做除了更好地平衡分配黃金儲備，也可以起到提高公眾信心的效果。”
Friday, 27 June 2014
德國央行暫停黃金取回報導僅是宣傳策略
本週有報道稱，德國央行將“暫停”從美聯儲取回黃金的計劃，並稱對美聯儲儲藏的黃金錶示放心。
黃金反壟斷協會(GATA)的Chris Powell認為，這一齣完全是處於媒體公關宣傳。“這篇報道完全沒什麼事實來證明這樣的結論，”Powell説，“沒有提到德國央行又拿回了多少黃金，也沒有提到取回計劃有什麼改變。”
Powell認為這樣的報道完全是公關宣傳，“這讓我覺得要麼是美聯儲要麼是德國央行要求媒體做出了這樣的報道，好讓全世界以為一切都沒問題，”Powell説，“而且這報道完全沒説在前幾個月拿回了5噸後，德國央行又拿回了多少。”
在2013年1月16日德國央行稱要在2020年之前從美聯儲取回其存儲的300噸黃金。然而到今年初，德國央行僅僅從美聯儲拿回了區區5噸黃金，正因此，市場響起了對美聯儲還剩下多少黃金的懷疑。
Powell稱，“西方央行肯定還有一些黃金，問題是他們宣傳他們還有多少黃金?美聯儲和英格蘭銀行都西方央行都把自己的黃金出借，很多黃金就這麼沒了。”
“而且我們完全不知道那些金庫中到底還有多少黃金，這些央行不讓人審計黃金也不公開賬目和黃金租約。”
Powell還稱，美聯儲和一些外國銀行有黃金交易協定，還剩下的金庫中的黃金則可能有很多個索償。
“央行都顯得非常神秘，所有我認為一定有什麼事情在發生，只是他們不想讓外界知道，”Powell説，“因為很可能會出現黃金儲備消失的狀況。”
Powell還提到世界貨幣基金組織(IMF)秘密的1999年3月員工報告，一些流出的報告確認了各國央行在黃金市場都很活躍，並且經常偷偷使用黃金來干涉市場，“他們非常不希望外界知道黃金被使用，一旦顯示出黃金沒了，會使信心極大的崩塌。”
黃金反壟斷協會(GATA)的Chris Powell認為，這一齣完全是處於媒體公關宣傳。“這篇報道完全沒什麼事實來證明這樣的結論，”Powell説，“沒有提到德國央行又拿回了多少黃金，也沒有提到取回計劃有什麼改變。”
Powell認為這樣的報道完全是公關宣傳，“這讓我覺得要麼是美聯儲要麼是德國央行要求媒體做出了這樣的報道，好讓全世界以為一切都沒問題，”Powell説，“而且這報道完全沒説在前幾個月拿回了5噸後，德國央行又拿回了多少。”
在2013年1月16日德國央行稱要在2020年之前從美聯儲取回其存儲的300噸黃金。然而到今年初，德國央行僅僅從美聯儲拿回了區區5噸黃金，正因此，市場響起了對美聯儲還剩下多少黃金的懷疑。
Powell稱，“西方央行肯定還有一些黃金，問題是他們宣傳他們還有多少黃金?美聯儲和英格蘭銀行都西方央行都把自己的黃金出借，很多黃金就這麼沒了。”
“而且我們完全不知道那些金庫中到底還有多少黃金，這些央行不讓人審計黃金也不公開賬目和黃金租約。”
Powell還稱，美聯儲和一些外國銀行有黃金交易協定，還剩下的金庫中的黃金則可能有很多個索償。
“央行都顯得非常神秘，所有我認為一定有什麼事情在發生，只是他們不想讓外界知道，”Powell説，“因為很可能會出現黃金儲備消失的狀況。”
Powell還提到世界貨幣基金組織(IMF)秘密的1999年3月員工報告，一些流出的報告確認了各國央行在黃金市場都很活躍，並且經常偷偷使用黃金來干涉市場，“他們非常不希望外界知道黃金被使用，一旦顯示出黃金沒了，會使信心極大的崩塌。”
Tuesday, 24 June 2014
德國央行官員緊急澄：取回黃金計劃只是“暫停”
就在德國央行中止從美國取回黃金的報導出來幾小時後，原報導中被提到的德國央行官員便出來澄清稱報導並不准確。
德國央行官員Peter Boehringer稱，德國央行從美聯儲取回所存黃金的計劃暫停並不代表德國央行對目前的取回狀況滿意，並稱計劃將被繼續執行。
在2013年1月16日德國央行稱要在2020年之前從法蘭西銀行和美聯儲分別取回其存儲的374噸和300噸黃金。結果2013年全年德國央行只從美聯儲紐約金庫拿回了5噸黃金，這很難讓人對美聯儲紐約金庫應當存有的1500噸黃金生疑。
Boehringer稱，媒體最新的報導並沒有什麼稱得上是“新聞”的新發展。德國央行仍然計劃在2020年前從紐約取回超過300噸的黃金，該行也沒有停止正在進行的取回計劃。
此外，他還稱德國的反歐元政黨從來就和取回黃金的計劃無關。
Boehringer還說，原新聞報導中被提到的官員並不管理德國的黃金儲備，德國央行是獨立於政黨影響的。
德國央行官員Peter Boehringer稱，德國央行從美聯儲取回所存黃金的計劃暫停並不代表德國央行對目前的取回狀況滿意，並稱計劃將被繼續執行。
在2013年1月16日德國央行稱要在2020年之前從法蘭西銀行和美聯儲分別取回其存儲的374噸和300噸黃金。結果2013年全年德國央行只從美聯儲紐約金庫拿回了5噸黃金，這很難讓人對美聯儲紐約金庫應當存有的1500噸黃金生疑。
Boehringer稱，媒體最新的報導並沒有什麼稱得上是“新聞”的新發展。德國央行仍然計劃在2020年前從紐約取回超過300噸的黃金，該行也沒有停止正在進行的取回計劃。
此外，他還稱德國的反歐元政黨從來就和取回黃金的計劃無關。
Boehringer還說，原新聞報導中被提到的官員並不管理德國的黃金儲備，德國央行是獨立於政黨影響的。
Monday, 24 February 2014
德國央行官員：存儲於美聯儲的金條完好
2013年1月16日德國央行(Bundesbank)稱最早2020年前從法蘭西銀行(Banque de France)和美聯儲 (Fed)分別拿回存儲的374噸和300噸黃金。一年之後，德國央行卻僅僅拿回了37噸黃金，而其中僅有5噸是來自美聯儲的。要知道，美聯儲存儲著德國3396噸黃金的45%。
這顯然引起了很多猜測，很多人認為美聯儲將德國的黃金融解出租甚至出售掉了。而在此前，有消息稱德國央行之所以要拿回那些黃金，就是因為美聯儲不讓德國央行檢查那些被存儲著的黃金。
近日，德國央行董事會成員Carl-Ludwig Thiele接受采訪，談及了德國這些黃金的問題。
在談到德國沒有權限檢查存在美聯儲的黃金，以及美聯儲已將那些黃金做它用的傳聞時，Thiele稱在2002年6月，他本人就在紐約，並且查看了他們的黃金是怎麼被存儲的。“ 美國人從沒有阻礙我們，相反，他們非常合作。我們的內部審計團隊在去年移動黃金的時候就在現場。融解的過程也被獨立專家監管。”
此外Thiele還稱從美聯儲金庫被帶走的黃金在被運到歐洲後才會被融解，做成符合目前標準的金條。“我們存在美聯儲的一些黃金是在二戰前製造的，在檢查後，這些金條是完全好的。”
Thiele說：“在運輸前，我們原本的那些金條在紐約被交到我們手上，我們的內部審計團隊檢查了數目。然後這些金條就被運到歐洲，被融解。所以那些陰謀論都完全沒根據的。”
德國的黃金還有存在英國央行 (BOE)的，13%被存在倫敦，還有11%被存在法蘭西銀行，其餘的則都存在德國央行在法蘭克福的總部。
在被問道黃金是否被用在貨幣政策上時，Thiele說：“這是一個非常理論上的狀況，會牽涉進很極端的外匯市場紊亂。德國通過儲備資產保障其償付能力。除了外匯儲備，我們的儲備資產包括黃金。黃金能被抵押或者直接換取外國貨幣。這也是為什麼我們把一半黃金留著紐約和倫敦的原因。”
在被問到讓美國人存儲黃金的原因時，Thiele說：“這要從歷史角度看。黃金儲備是在布雷頓森林體系的時候出現的。當時在東方有威脅，因此看起來要把德國的黃金存的越遠越好，因此被存到了紐約。”
這顯然引起了很多猜測，很多人認為美聯儲將德國的黃金融解出租甚至出售掉了。而在此前，有消息稱德國央行之所以要拿回那些黃金，就是因為美聯儲不讓德國央行檢查那些被存儲著的黃金。
近日，德國央行董事會成員Carl-Ludwig Thiele接受采訪，談及了德國這些黃金的問題。
在談到德國沒有權限檢查存在美聯儲的黃金，以及美聯儲已將那些黃金做它用的傳聞時，Thiele稱在2002年6月，他本人就在紐約，並且查看了他們的黃金是怎麼被存儲的。“ 美國人從沒有阻礙我們，相反，他們非常合作。我們的內部審計團隊在去年移動黃金的時候就在現場。融解的過程也被獨立專家監管。”
此外Thiele還稱從美聯儲金庫被帶走的黃金在被運到歐洲後才會被融解，做成符合目前標準的金條。“我們存在美聯儲的一些黃金是在二戰前製造的，在檢查後，這些金條是完全好的。”
Thiele說：“在運輸前，我們原本的那些金條在紐約被交到我們手上，我們的內部審計團隊檢查了數目。然後這些金條就被運到歐洲，被融解。所以那些陰謀論都完全沒根據的。”
德國的黃金還有存在英國央行 (BOE)的，13%被存在倫敦，還有11%被存在法蘭西銀行，其餘的則都存在德國央行在法蘭克福的總部。
在被問道黃金是否被用在貨幣政策上時，Thiele說：“這是一個非常理論上的狀況，會牽涉進很極端的外匯市場紊亂。德國通過儲備資產保障其償付能力。除了外匯儲備，我們的儲備資產包括黃金。黃金能被抵押或者直接換取外國貨幣。這也是為什麼我們把一半黃金留著紐約和倫敦的原因。”
在被問到讓美國人存儲黃金的原因時，Thiele說：“這要從歷史角度看。黃金儲備是在布雷頓森林體系的時候出現的。當時在東方有威脅，因此看起來要把德國的黃金存的越遠越好，因此被存到了紐約。”
Wednesday, 19 February 2014
Half of German gold reserves will be stored in Germany by 2020
Interview with Carl-Ludwig Thiele, Member of the Executive Board of the Deutsche Bundesbank, published in Handelsblatt on 19 February 2014.
Translation: Deutsche Bundesbank
Interview conducted by Norbert Häring and Jens Münchrath.
Mr Thiele, do you consider yourself a kind of psychotherapist of the German soul?
No, why should I?
Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann described the partial transfer of German gold from New York as a trust-building measure in Germany.You are the one responsible for organising this major logistical undertaking.
Indeed, we are inspiring trust by storing half of the 3,400 tonnes of gold in Frankfurt by 2020. Building trust also means being transparent. We were the first central bank to publish details of our storage facilities, including the respective quantities of gold stored there.
Is there a scenario in which gold could begin to be used in monetary policy?
A highly theoretical scenario would involve extreme turmoil on the foreign exchange markets. Germany safeguards its solvency through reserve assets. In addition to foreign currency, our reserve assets include gold reserves. This gold could be pledged or exchanged directly for foreign currency. That is also why we have left the other half of our gold reserves in New York and London. Although we thankfully do not envisage such a crisis scenario, central banks are designed for the long term.
In October 2012, you promised the German Bundestag that you would transfer a total of 150 tonnes of gold from New York to Frankfurt by 2015. In January 2013, you extended the time frame to 2020 and increased the amount to 300 tonnes. What time frame are you looking at now?
The plans are not contradictory. We specified our initial target in October 2012. In January 2013, we then presented a new gold storage plan and specified a new target that is considerably higher than the first. Instead of only 150 tonnes, we are now transferring 300 tonnes of gold from New York to Germany.
So both targets still apply?
We now consider ourselves bound to the new gold storage plan. But the three years have not yet passed. We shall wait and see. We are on the right track in any case.
But the members of the German Bundestag have acted on the assumption of the initial promise.The second has got a more long-term oriented time frame. Was your initial promise overly ambitious? In the first year, you only returned five tonnes from the USA.
It is not a question of “returning”. The gold is being transferred to Germany for the first time. Until 1998, only 2% of our gold, or thereabouts, was stored in Germany. In the first year, we transported five tonnes from New York. This year, we will transfer 30 to 50 tonnes, or perhaps even more, from New York to Frankfurt. And there is still next year to come.
Does that mean that the target of 150 tonnes is still attainable?
Since we are in the midst of an ongoing process, I would like you to ask me the question again in two years’ time. In any case, we will store half of the German gold reserves in Germany by 2020 at the latest.
Why are you content with such a low target for this year?Is the programme still experiencing teething problems in its second year?
No, it is not. We have planned the timing of the transfers in such a way as to ensure that 300 tonnes are transferred from New York to Germany by 2020 at the latest.
There are these rumours that either the gold in New York is no longer there or you do not have unrestricted access to it.
Why have you not called in auditors or other externals to oversee the transfers in response to such rumours?
It astounds me that Handelsblatt pays any attention to such absurd rumours. I was in New York myself in June 2012 with the colleagues responsible for managing the gold reserves and saw for myself how our money is stored in the vault there. The Americans have never stonewalled or hindered us in any way. On the contrary, their cooperation has been most constructive in every respect. Our internal audit team was present last year during the on-site removal of gold bars and closely monitored everything. The smelting process is also being monitored by independent experts.
Does this also apply to opportunities to inspect the stocks?
You said a year ago that discussions on the matter with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York were making good progress.
That is correct. We have enjoyed an excellent relationship of trust with the New York Fed for many decades. As regards the details of the contracts, however, we are bound by confidentiality which we cannot unilaterally break. From my visit to New York, I can tell you that a number of bars selected by us were removed, inspected and reweighed even while I was there. The inspections conducted by our internal audit team, during which an external auditor was also present, were also completed to our utmost satisfaction.
Was an external auditor present during your visit to the New York Fed gold storage facility in June 2012?
No, not during my visit. However, an external auditor was present for part of the time during the internal audit team’s inspection of stocks.
Did the gold from New York have to be melted down immediately?
The gold was removed from the vault in the presence of the internal audit team and transported to Europe. Only once the gold had arrived in Europe was it melted down and brought to the current bar standard. Some of the bars in our stocks in New York were produced before the Second World War. It was confirmed after the melting process, as anticipated, that these bars were absolutely fine.
The Federal Court of Auditors (FCA) sparked the debate by calling for an inspection of Germany’s gold holdings abroad.When you announced in October 2012 that part of the holdings were to be transferred to Germany, the FCA responded that this was a first step, but not a comprehensive procedure. Is the FCA now satisfied?
The FCA never demanded that the Bundesbank transfer gold to Germany. It was more concerned with extending its rights with regard to inspecting gold reserves abroad. The Bundesbank’s internal audit department now has rights it never used to have. The Budget Committee has acknowledged the FCA’s report, which concludes this discussion. Incidentally, the FCA examined the Bundesbank’s annual accounts for 2012 and found no irregularities.
The FCA claims it has no knowledge of newly agreed audit rights.
The FCA has access to all information at all times. I am sure the President of the FCA will be able to confirm this for you.
If the intention was to build trust, would it not have been better to postpone the smelting processso that you would have been able to present sceptics with the original bars?
Prior to transportation, the original gold bars were handed over to us in New York. Our internal audit team checked the numbers of the bars there and then against its own lists. The very same gold arrived at the European gold smelters that we had commissioned. This ought to demonstrate to everyone that such conspiracy theories are completely unfounded.
Calling in external auditors or critics was not an option?
The Bundesbank’s internal audit department is involved in the process from start to finish. Independent experts were present during the smelting process.
Are there any advantages for the Americans in storing gold for other nations? After all, they are protecting our reserves free of charge.
To answer this question, you need to look at the historical context. As you may know, gold reserves were established during the Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate system. Given the threat from the East at the time, it seemed the safest option was to store German gold as far west as possible. The gold was therefore stored in New York from the outset.
So the Americans are taking on high storage costs for nothing in return?
No, why high storage costs? The gold has been stored there for decades. The storage rooms already exist.
Security guards cost money…
It is not just our gold that they protect, but also that of other central banks. But that is a matter for the New York Fed.
Just over a year ago, you were asked whether storing gold with the victors of the Second World War was not perhaps an echo of the old Bonn Republic when Germany was not yet a fully sovereign state. Back then, your answer was rather vague. What is your answer today?
To my knowledge, gold was stored in New York, London and Paris mainly for security policy reasons. We transferred 930 tonnes of gold from London more than ten years ago without experiencing any difficulties with the Bank of England or upsetting German-British relations. The same applies to the Banque de France and the New York Fed.
Translation: Deutsche Bundesbank
Interview conducted by Norbert Häring and Jens Münchrath.
Mr Thiele, do you consider yourself a kind of psychotherapist of the German soul?
No, why should I?
Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann described the partial transfer of German gold from New York as a trust-building measure in Germany.You are the one responsible for organising this major logistical undertaking.
Indeed, we are inspiring trust by storing half of the 3,400 tonnes of gold in Frankfurt by 2020. Building trust also means being transparent. We were the first central bank to publish details of our storage facilities, including the respective quantities of gold stored there.
Is there a scenario in which gold could begin to be used in monetary policy?
A highly theoretical scenario would involve extreme turmoil on the foreign exchange markets. Germany safeguards its solvency through reserve assets. In addition to foreign currency, our reserve assets include gold reserves. This gold could be pledged or exchanged directly for foreign currency. That is also why we have left the other half of our gold reserves in New York and London. Although we thankfully do not envisage such a crisis scenario, central banks are designed for the long term.
In October 2012, you promised the German Bundestag that you would transfer a total of 150 tonnes of gold from New York to Frankfurt by 2015. In January 2013, you extended the time frame to 2020 and increased the amount to 300 tonnes. What time frame are you looking at now?
The plans are not contradictory. We specified our initial target in October 2012. In January 2013, we then presented a new gold storage plan and specified a new target that is considerably higher than the first. Instead of only 150 tonnes, we are now transferring 300 tonnes of gold from New York to Germany.
So both targets still apply?
We now consider ourselves bound to the new gold storage plan. But the three years have not yet passed. We shall wait and see. We are on the right track in any case.
But the members of the German Bundestag have acted on the assumption of the initial promise.The second has got a more long-term oriented time frame. Was your initial promise overly ambitious? In the first year, you only returned five tonnes from the USA.
It is not a question of “returning”. The gold is being transferred to Germany for the first time. Until 1998, only 2% of our gold, or thereabouts, was stored in Germany. In the first year, we transported five tonnes from New York. This year, we will transfer 30 to 50 tonnes, or perhaps even more, from New York to Frankfurt. And there is still next year to come.
Does that mean that the target of 150 tonnes is still attainable?
Since we are in the midst of an ongoing process, I would like you to ask me the question again in two years’ time. In any case, we will store half of the German gold reserves in Germany by 2020 at the latest.
Why are you content with such a low target for this year?Is the programme still experiencing teething problems in its second year?
No, it is not. We have planned the timing of the transfers in such a way as to ensure that 300 tonnes are transferred from New York to Germany by 2020 at the latest.
There are these rumours that either the gold in New York is no longer there or you do not have unrestricted access to it.
Why have you not called in auditors or other externals to oversee the transfers in response to such rumours?
It astounds me that Handelsblatt pays any attention to such absurd rumours. I was in New York myself in June 2012 with the colleagues responsible for managing the gold reserves and saw for myself how our money is stored in the vault there. The Americans have never stonewalled or hindered us in any way. On the contrary, their cooperation has been most constructive in every respect. Our internal audit team was present last year during the on-site removal of gold bars and closely monitored everything. The smelting process is also being monitored by independent experts.
Does this also apply to opportunities to inspect the stocks?
You said a year ago that discussions on the matter with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York were making good progress.
That is correct. We have enjoyed an excellent relationship of trust with the New York Fed for many decades. As regards the details of the contracts, however, we are bound by confidentiality which we cannot unilaterally break. From my visit to New York, I can tell you that a number of bars selected by us were removed, inspected and reweighed even while I was there. The inspections conducted by our internal audit team, during which an external auditor was also present, were also completed to our utmost satisfaction.
Was an external auditor present during your visit to the New York Fed gold storage facility in June 2012?
No, not during my visit. However, an external auditor was present for part of the time during the internal audit team’s inspection of stocks.
Did the gold from New York have to be melted down immediately?
The gold was removed from the vault in the presence of the internal audit team and transported to Europe. Only once the gold had arrived in Europe was it melted down and brought to the current bar standard. Some of the bars in our stocks in New York were produced before the Second World War. It was confirmed after the melting process, as anticipated, that these bars were absolutely fine.
The Federal Court of Auditors (FCA) sparked the debate by calling for an inspection of Germany’s gold holdings abroad.When you announced in October 2012 that part of the holdings were to be transferred to Germany, the FCA responded that this was a first step, but not a comprehensive procedure. Is the FCA now satisfied?
The FCA never demanded that the Bundesbank transfer gold to Germany. It was more concerned with extending its rights with regard to inspecting gold reserves abroad. The Bundesbank’s internal audit department now has rights it never used to have. The Budget Committee has acknowledged the FCA’s report, which concludes this discussion. Incidentally, the FCA examined the Bundesbank’s annual accounts for 2012 and found no irregularities.
The FCA claims it has no knowledge of newly agreed audit rights.
The FCA has access to all information at all times. I am sure the President of the FCA will be able to confirm this for you.
If the intention was to build trust, would it not have been better to postpone the smelting processso that you would have been able to present sceptics with the original bars?
Prior to transportation, the original gold bars were handed over to us in New York. Our internal audit team checked the numbers of the bars there and then against its own lists. The very same gold arrived at the European gold smelters that we had commissioned. This ought to demonstrate to everyone that such conspiracy theories are completely unfounded.
Calling in external auditors or critics was not an option?
The Bundesbank’s internal audit department is involved in the process from start to finish. Independent experts were present during the smelting process.
Are there any advantages for the Americans in storing gold for other nations? After all, they are protecting our reserves free of charge.
To answer this question, you need to look at the historical context. As you may know, gold reserves were established during the Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate system. Given the threat from the East at the time, it seemed the safest option was to store German gold as far west as possible. The gold was therefore stored in New York from the outset.
So the Americans are taking on high storage costs for nothing in return?
No, why high storage costs? The gold has been stored there for decades. The storage rooms already exist.
Security guards cost money…
It is not just our gold that they protect, but also that of other central banks. But that is a matter for the New York Fed.
Just over a year ago, you were asked whether storing gold with the victors of the Second World War was not perhaps an echo of the old Bonn Republic when Germany was not yet a fully sovereign state. Back then, your answer was rather vague. What is your answer today?
To my knowledge, gold was stored in New York, London and Paris mainly for security policy reasons. We transferred 930 tonnes of gold from London more than ten years ago without experiencing any difficulties with the Bank of England or upsetting German-British relations. The same applies to the Banque de France and the New York Fed.
Tuesday, 18 February 2014
黃金值不值錢問央行就知道！WGC：連續12個季度買超
Thomson Reuters 18日報導，根據世界黃金協會(WGC)最新發表的統計報告，受黃金ETF遭拋售(註：淨流出881公噸)抵銷創紀錄實體需求的影響，2013年全球黃金需求量下滑15%至3,756公噸、創4年新低；礦區產量年增5%至1,968.5公噸、創歷史新高。WGC統計顯示，2013年全球黃金首飾、金幣、金條需求量年增21%至創紀錄的3,863.5公噸。值得注意的是，自西方金庫透過北美、瑞士、杜拜煉金商流向東方市場的數量也創下新高紀錄。
中國去年黃金首飾、金幣/金條需求分別年增29%、38%，帶動該國超越印度成為全球最大黃金消費國。2013年全球黃金首飾需求量達到2,209.5公噸、創5年來新高。印度黃金首飾需求年增11%至612.7公噸；美國也成長至122.8公噸、2001年以來首見上揚。不過，2013年全球央行黃金購買數量年減近三分之一至368.6公噸。WGC投資部董事總經理郭博思(Marcus Grubb)預估今年全球央行黃金購買數量將與去年相當。
彭博社報導，WGC統計顯示，2013年印度黃金需求量年增13%至974.8公噸、佔全球需求約四分之一比重。其中，金幣/金條需求年增16%至362.1公噸。
WGC透過新聞稿指出，2013年全球金幣、金條需求量年增28%至1,654公噸、創1992年開始統計以來新高。其中，美國需求年增26%至68公噸；土耳其年增113%至102公噸。
中國去年黃金整體需求量年增32%至創紀錄的1,066公噸，土耳其、泰國、美國也分別成長了60%、73%、18%。印度官方雖設下諸多進口限制，但該國需求依舊呈現上揚。WGC預估非官方進口數量幾乎較2012年增加一倍。
WGC指出，全球央行在去年每個季度皆站在買方，使得淨買超紀錄延續至12個季度；2009年迄今央行每年皆淨買黃金儲備。
根據Thomson Reuters GFMS的統計，2012年全球官方部門淨買黃金數量年增17.4%至536公噸，創1964年以來新高。
德國央行在去(2013)年1月16日宣布，2020年12月31日以前存放在紐約聯邦準備銀行的黃金儲備比重將從2012年12月底的45%降至37%(註：相當於搬移300公噸)、法國央行的存放比重將從11%降至0%(374公噸)。以8年時間來計算，德國每年平均應取回84.25公噸(12.5%)的金條。
德國央行總裁Jens Weidmann去年底在受訪時指出，2013年自紐約、巴黎取回的黃金數量逼近37公噸。據此推算，德國央行得花上將近20年的時間才能把上述674公噸黃金全數運回國內。
中國去年黃金首飾、金幣/金條需求分別年增29%、38%，帶動該國超越印度成為全球最大黃金消費國。2013年全球黃金首飾需求量達到2,209.5公噸、創5年來新高。印度黃金首飾需求年增11%至612.7公噸；美國也成長至122.8公噸、2001年以來首見上揚。不過，2013年全球央行黃金購買數量年減近三分之一至368.6公噸。WGC投資部董事總經理郭博思(Marcus Grubb)預估今年全球央行黃金購買數量將與去年相當。
彭博社報導，WGC統計顯示，2013年印度黃金需求量年增13%至974.8公噸、佔全球需求約四分之一比重。其中，金幣/金條需求年增16%至362.1公噸。
WGC透過新聞稿指出，2013年全球金幣、金條需求量年增28%至1,654公噸、創1992年開始統計以來新高。其中，美國需求年增26%至68公噸；土耳其年增113%至102公噸。
中國去年黃金整體需求量年增32%至創紀錄的1,066公噸，土耳其、泰國、美國也分別成長了60%、73%、18%。印度官方雖設下諸多進口限制，但該國需求依舊呈現上揚。WGC預估非官方進口數量幾乎較2012年增加一倍。
WGC指出，全球央行在去年每個季度皆站在買方，使得淨買超紀錄延續至12個季度；2009年迄今央行每年皆淨買黃金儲備。
根據Thomson Reuters GFMS的統計，2012年全球官方部門淨買黃金數量年增17.4%至536公噸，創1964年以來新高。
德國央行在去(2013)年1月16日宣布，2020年12月31日以前存放在紐約聯邦準備銀行的黃金儲備比重將從2012年12月底的45%降至37%(註：相當於搬移300公噸)、法國央行的存放比重將從11%降至0%(374公噸)。以8年時間來計算，德國每年平均應取回84.25公噸(12.5%)的金條。
德國央行總裁Jens Weidmann去年底在受訪時指出，2013年自紐約、巴黎取回的黃金數量逼近37公噸。據此推算，德國央行得花上將近20年的時間才能把上述674公噸黃金全數運回國內。
Monday, 20 January 2014
德媒：德國央行收回37噸黃金僅5噸來自紐約聯儲
在去年12月24日，也就是德國央行宣布將從紐約聯儲和法國央行拿回自己的674噸黃金後的一年，德國央行拿回了其中的37噸，僅僅是其目標量的5%，也遠遠低於要在8年內拿回所需要的每年84噸的均量。
這樣的數量讓德國民眾非常不滿，一系列陰謀論也喧囂塵上。然而，更讓人吃驚的是，德國媒體Die Welt報導稱，這37噸中只有5噸是來自紐約聯儲的，其它都來自巴黎。
Welt寫到：“德國央行的解釋是從巴黎運輸過來比較容易，因此啟動的比較快。”
此外，還有另一個理由，即巴黎的黃金已經是符合倫敦合格交割的細長條狀，但美聯儲儲藏的黃金則需要重新被融成這樣的形狀，而熔煉的能力是有限的。
Welt還針對一些陰謀論解釋說那些從紐約運去的黃金就是之前的黃金，其重量和純度都是符合要求的，並稱今年將從紐約向德國運回30到50噸黃金。
事實上，德國人是有理由“陰謀論”的，早在1968年，美聯儲和英格蘭銀行就廣為人知地將不符合交割要求的黃金交付給德國人。
對德國央行來說，重新融掉黃金等等並不是問題，真正的問題是，如果他們的黃金根本就不在美聯儲的金庫中呢？
1968年3月，美國曾經用完了符合交割要求的黃金而只剩下金條和金幣，因此關閉黃金總庫，選擇了雙重的價格系統。德國央行則以美聯儲金庫中的黃金作為債務償還，因此美聯儲和加拿大央行達成協議獲取了一些黃金來還給德國央行，這些黃金自1968年三月至六月被運去英格蘭，至於這些黃金的質量就不得而知了。
也因此，德國央行這一次費力避免曝光自己黃金存貨的純度是有理由的，它們不希望自己的黃金信用受損。
這樣的數量讓德國民眾非常不滿，一系列陰謀論也喧囂塵上。然而，更讓人吃驚的是，德國媒體Die Welt報導稱，這37噸中只有5噸是來自紐約聯儲的，其它都來自巴黎。
Welt寫到：“德國央行的解釋是從巴黎運輸過來比較容易，因此啟動的比較快。”
此外，還有另一個理由，即巴黎的黃金已經是符合倫敦合格交割的細長條狀，但美聯儲儲藏的黃金則需要重新被融成這樣的形狀，而熔煉的能力是有限的。
Welt還針對一些陰謀論解釋說那些從紐約運去的黃金就是之前的黃金，其重量和純度都是符合要求的，並稱今年將從紐約向德國運回30到50噸黃金。
事實上，德國人是有理由“陰謀論”的，早在1968年，美聯儲和英格蘭銀行就廣為人知地將不符合交割要求的黃金交付給德國人。
對德國央行來說，重新融掉黃金等等並不是問題，真正的問題是，如果他們的黃金根本就不在美聯儲的金庫中呢？
1968年3月，美國曾經用完了符合交割要求的黃金而只剩下金條和金幣，因此關閉黃金總庫，選擇了雙重的價格系統。德國央行則以美聯儲金庫中的黃金作為債務償還，因此美聯儲和加拿大央行達成協議獲取了一些黃金來還給德國央行，這些黃金自1968年三月至六月被運去英格蘭，至於這些黃金的質量就不得而知了。
也因此，德國央行這一次費力避免曝光自己黃金存貨的純度是有理由的，它們不希望自己的黃金信用受損。
Wednesday, 8 January 2014
德國黃金儲備之謎：德央行存放在紐約的黃金去哪兒了？
冷戰期間出於安全考慮，德國央行在美法兩國存有黃金，德國的海外黃金總量在3000噸左右。2013年，德國央行稱從紐約運回了近37噸黃金到法蘭克福，未來幾年計劃運回更多。魏德曼稱，取回這些黃金是為了配合審計局對境外黃金儲備的檢查，一家安全公司會將一部分每塊重12.5千克的金條融化，然後通過飛機和載重汽車運往法蘭克福。
獨立財經記者Lars Schall就此對德國央行發問：
1. 為什麼需要融化金條？
2. 如果要融化金條，為什麼不能等到金條抵達法蘭克福後再融化？
德國央行有關人員回復稱，這是德國央行新的儲備理念，融化再鑄金條的目的是讓金條符合LGD（London Good Delivery）標準，並稱為保證黃金運輸安全和有關工作人員的安全，不能對此提供更多詳細信息。整體看，德國央行對Schall的問題未能給出清晰的回覆。
德國貴金屬協會主席Peter Boehringer表示，德國央行的回覆不透明且很奇怪。Boehringer是“德國黃金歸國運動”的發起人之一。Boehringer提出了三個問題：
1. 為什麼德國央行繼續迴避德國黃金儲備問題？
2. 在德國央行回覆給Schall的信中，為什麼不能簡單明確地闡述事實？德國央行強調在美國融化金條和LGD標準，解釋晦澀且不透明。
3. Boehringer表示，1950~1960年的原始金條，其實從未被證實存在過，因為出版物上沒有它們的照片。就算它們是存在的，德國央行沒有理由選擇在紐約而非法蘭克福融化金條。德國央行也沒有理由不透明地運作，不發布有關再鑄金條的報告。
德國黃金儲備價值超過1250億美元，德國央行欠公眾一個公開透明的回覆。這一次，德國央行未能證實，截至2013年末，至少有37噸1950~1960年間的金條仍然存在。德國央行持有接近3000噸LGD標準下的金條，但這不能證實什麼，也無法擺脫多年來人們對其操縱金價的指控。
也有可能是這樣的：很久以前，最初的德國金條被借入到市場中去了，或者這些金條有多個持有者，或者這些金條是數個ETF衍生品的基礎資產。
當前，“德國黃金歸國運動”的發起人考慮採取法律手段，要求德國央行和相關審計人員對黃金儲備給出明確的答覆。
獨立財經記者Lars Schall就此對德國央行發問：
1. 為什麼需要融化金條？
2. 如果要融化金條，為什麼不能等到金條抵達法蘭克福後再融化？
德國央行有關人員回復稱，這是德國央行新的儲備理念，融化再鑄金條的目的是讓金條符合LGD（London Good Delivery）標準，並稱為保證黃金運輸安全和有關工作人員的安全，不能對此提供更多詳細信息。整體看，德國央行對Schall的問題未能給出清晰的回覆。
德國貴金屬協會主席Peter Boehringer表示，德國央行的回覆不透明且很奇怪。Boehringer是“德國黃金歸國運動”的發起人之一。Boehringer提出了三個問題：
1. 為什麼德國央行繼續迴避德國黃金儲備問題？
2. 在德國央行回覆給Schall的信中，為什麼不能簡單明確地闡述事實？德國央行強調在美國融化金條和LGD標準，解釋晦澀且不透明。
3. Boehringer表示，1950~1960年的原始金條，其實從未被證實存在過，因為出版物上沒有它們的照片。就算它們是存在的，德國央行沒有理由選擇在紐約而非法蘭克福融化金條。德國央行也沒有理由不透明地運作，不發布有關再鑄金條的報告。
德國黃金儲備價值超過1250億美元，德國央行欠公眾一個公開透明的回覆。這一次，德國央行未能證實，截至2013年末，至少有37噸1950~1960年間的金條仍然存在。德國央行持有接近3000噸LGD標準下的金條，但這不能證實什麼，也無法擺脫多年來人們對其操縱金價的指控。
也有可能是這樣的：很久以前，最初的德國金條被借入到市場中去了，或者這些金條有多個持有者，或者這些金條是數個ETF衍生品的基礎資產。
當前，“德國黃金歸國運動”的發起人考慮採取法律手段，要求德國央行和相關審計人員對黃金儲備給出明確的答覆。
Monday, 21 January 2013
為什麼德國希望看到其國在美國的黃金
Why Germany Wants to See its US Gold
Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann wanted to personally convince Peter Gauweiler that the German gold was still where it should be. Early this summer, the head of Germany's central bank took the obstinate politician from the conservative Christian Social Union (CSU), a party that is a member of the government coalition in Berlin, and a number of his colleagues into the Bundesbank's inner sanctum: the gold vault.
But even this personal inspection wasn't enough to reassure the visiting member of parliament -- on the contrary: "The Bundesbank monitors its domestic gold in an exemplary fashion," Gauweiler says, "and this makes it all the more incomprehensible that the bank doesn't look after its reserves abroad."
For quite some time now, Gauweiler has been pestering the government and the Bundesbank with questions concerning where and how the country's reserves are stored, and how often they are checked. He has submitted requests and commissioned reports on the topic.
Last week, Gauweiler celebrated his greatest triumph to date in his gold campaign, which has been a source of some amusement for many fellow German politicians: A secret report by the Federal Audit Office had been made public -- and it contained stern criticism of the German central bank in Frankfurt. The Bonn-based auditors urged a better inventory system, including quality checks.
This demand, which even the bank's inspectors saw as nothing more than routine, alarmed the Berlin political establishment. Indeed, the partially blacked-out report read like the prologue to an espionage thriller in which the stunned central bankers could end up standing in front of empty vaults in the US.
'Grotesque Debate'
For decades, German central bankers have contented themselves with written affirmations from their American colleagues that the gold still remains where it is said to be stored. According to the report, the bar list from New York stems from "1979/1980." The report also noted that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York refuses to allow the gold's owners to view their own reserves.
Not surprisingly, this prompted strong reactions in Berlin: The relevant Bundesbank board member Carl-Ludwig Thiele was summoned to Berlin to provide an explanation to the parliamentary budget committee. Heinz-Peter Haustein of the business-friendly Free Democratic Party (FDP) was even quoted by Germany's mass-circulation Bild newspaper as saying that "all the gold has to be shipped back."
The Bundesbank's otherwise reserved Thiele said that he found at least "part of the debate" to be "rather grotesque." His financial institution currently has more pressing problems. Bundesbank head Weidmann, for example, is desperately fighting the European Central Bank (ECB) decision to buy unlimited quantities of sovereign bonds from crisis-ridden countries as a way of lowering their borrowing costs. In addition, the Bundesbank has already pumped nearly €700 billion ($906 billion) into primarily southern European countries as part of the euro-zone central bank transfers known as Target II.
Germany's gold reserves are currently worth some €144 billion and are not stored "with dubious business partners," as Thiele stresses, but rather with "highly respected central bankers."
Special Connection
There is in fact nothing unusual about how Germany deals with the precious metal. Many other central banks store a portion of their gold reserves abroad. The Netherlands, for example, places its trust in its colleagues in Ottawa, New York and London.
But the relationship Germans have with their gold is a special one. Germany hoards nearly 3,600 metric tons of the precious metal -- only the US has more. Much of this gold treasure was amassed under the Bretton Woods international monetary system, in which the dollar served as the world's key currency and was directly convertible to fixed quantities of gold.
Before the gold standard was terminated in 1971, the current account surpluses generated by Germany's "economic miracle" were partially balanced out in gold. Thousands of US bars of gold alone were transferred to German ownership.
But since the euro is not backed by gold, such vast reserves are actually no longer necessary. Nevertheless, the Germans continue to resolutely defend them -- and every attempt to use this treasure has been met with dismay.
There has been no lack of proposals: Former German President Roman Herzog wanted to sell the gold to form the basis for a capital-based nursing care insurance scheme. In 2002, FDP parliamentary floor leader Rainer Brüderle proposed a fund for natural disasters. Former Bundesbank head Ernst Welteke added to the debate by suggesting the foundation of a national educational fund. But none of these ideas were ever taken seriously.
Most recently, German Chancellor Angela Merkel of the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) shot down an idea by the euro partners to use the reserves as collateral for euro bonds.
Strict Security
As a result, in addition to safeguarding the reserves of over 60 countries, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York continues to hold 1,536 metric tons of German gold -- or nearly half of Berlin's reserves. This enormous hoard of gold is stored in the fifth subfloor of the bank's building on Liberty Street, 25 meters (80 feet) below street level, and 15 meters below sea level. According to the bank's website, the vault rests on the bedrock of Manhattan Island.
Tourists are allowed to venture below street level to see the vault. After descending in an elevator, they stand in front of an enormous steel cylinder that pivots like a door in a 140-ton steel-and-concrete frame. But not even the owners are allowed to view their own gold. According to the Federal Audit Office report, the Fed explained that "in the interest of security and of the control process" no "viewings" are possible.
Finally, in 2007, "following numerous enquiries," Bundesbank staff members were allowed to see the facility, but they reportedly only made it to the anteroom of the German reserves.
In fact, auditors from the Bundesbank made a second visit in May 2011. This time one of the nine compartments was also opened, in which the German gold bars are densely stacked. A few were pulled out and weighed. But this part of the report has been blacked out -- out of consideration for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
"I would like more transparency on the issue," says Bundesbank board member Thiele. The Americans are very sensitive, though, when it comes to security procedures in their gold storage facilities. In their second major depository, the legendary Fort Knox, practically no one in recent decades has been allowed to view the gold reserves.
Fuelling Legends
Such intense secrecy fuels legends. Many conspiracy theorists have suspected for decades that the German gold has long since disappeared. Others believe that it has been lent out. They contend that there are only promissory notes of little worth stored in the bank's vaults.
Another myth that has been making the rounds in nationalist-oriented German circles is that the US refused to hand over the treasure and threatened during the Cold War to withdraw its troops from Germany if the Germans demanded their gold back. Former Bundesbank head Karl Blessing, according to the theory, had to provide the US written confirmation that he would never do such a thing.
This letter, as it happens, actually exists, as Blessing confirmed in his last interview with SPIEGEL in 1971 -- except it doesn't concern the German gold, but rather US gold reserves. Until 1971, every dollar could be exchanged for the precious metal. Blessing thus promised the US Federal Reserve that he would no longer convert the colossal German dollar reserves to gold because this would have caused the currency's value to plummet.
Today, this historic document is even available online. But that hasn't silenced those who oppose stockpiling German gold abroad. Instead, the debate over a collapse of strictly paper-based currency is experiencing a renaissance -- as is the dispute over the gold reserves. Even Green Party financial expert Gerhard Schick has joined the fray: "I think the question of how much gold is available in an emergency is a valid concern."
Outlandish Idea
From a purely logistical perspective, though, returning the reserves seems outlandish. One cannot simply pack 1,500 tons of gold into an Airbus A380 super-jumbo jet and fly it back to Germany.
The Bundesbank also objects to this notion for another reason. It says the gold is supposed to act as an emergency buffer. In the extreme situation of a currency collapse, the bankers say that the gold bars could easily and quickly be exchanged on location for pounds or dollars to pay urgent bills.
In a bid to calm the debate, the Bundesbank has pledged to bring back and inspect 150 tons of gold from abroad over the next three years. Furthermore, there are plans to count and weigh the gold bars stored in one of the nine chambers at the Fed in New York -- although no date has been set for this.
Bundesbank board member Thiele was also recently in New York where he took a look behind one of the vault doors. He had good news for the members of the parliamentary budget committee: "There was no paper in there, just gold."
But that's not enough for CSU politician Gauweiler. He's only prepared to put the matter to rest when the central bank has thoroughly inspected all the German reserves throughout the entire world. His credo: "The Bundesbank is independent, but it can't do what it wants."
 |
| 紐約聯邦儲備銀行持有1,536噸的德金 |
Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann wanted to personally convince Peter Gauweiler that the German gold was still where it should be. Early this summer, the head of Germany's central bank took the obstinate politician from the conservative Christian Social Union (CSU), a party that is a member of the government coalition in Berlin, and a number of his colleagues into the Bundesbank's inner sanctum: the gold vault.
There, 6,000 gold bars are stacked on industrial-strength shelves in a purpose-built building in Frankfurt. An additional 76,000 bars of bullion are stored in four safe boxes, in sealed containers.
But even this personal inspection wasn't enough to reassure the visiting member of parliament -- on the contrary: "The Bundesbank monitors its domestic gold in an exemplary fashion," Gauweiler says, "and this makes it all the more incomprehensible that the bank doesn't look after its reserves abroad."
For quite some time now, Gauweiler has been pestering the government and the Bundesbank with questions concerning where and how the country's reserves are stored, and how often they are checked. He has submitted requests and commissioned reports on the topic.
Last week, Gauweiler celebrated his greatest triumph to date in his gold campaign, which has been a source of some amusement for many fellow German politicians: A secret report by the Federal Audit Office had been made public -- and it contained stern criticism of the German central bank in Frankfurt. The Bonn-based auditors urged a better inventory system, including quality checks.
This demand, which even the bank's inspectors saw as nothing more than routine, alarmed the Berlin political establishment. Indeed, the partially blacked-out report read like the prologue to an espionage thriller in which the stunned central bankers could end up standing in front of empty vaults in the US.
'Grotesque Debate'
For decades, German central bankers have contented themselves with written affirmations from their American colleagues that the gold still remains where it is said to be stored. According to the report, the bar list from New York stems from "1979/1980." The report also noted that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York refuses to allow the gold's owners to view their own reserves.
Not surprisingly, this prompted strong reactions in Berlin: The relevant Bundesbank board member Carl-Ludwig Thiele was summoned to Berlin to provide an explanation to the parliamentary budget committee. Heinz-Peter Haustein of the business-friendly Free Democratic Party (FDP) was even quoted by Germany's mass-circulation Bild newspaper as saying that "all the gold has to be shipped back."
The Bundesbank's otherwise reserved Thiele said that he found at least "part of the debate" to be "rather grotesque." His financial institution currently has more pressing problems. Bundesbank head Weidmann, for example, is desperately fighting the European Central Bank (ECB) decision to buy unlimited quantities of sovereign bonds from crisis-ridden countries as a way of lowering their borrowing costs. In addition, the Bundesbank has already pumped nearly €700 billion ($906 billion) into primarily southern European countries as part of the euro-zone central bank transfers known as Target II.
Germany's gold reserves are currently worth some €144 billion and are not stored "with dubious business partners," as Thiele stresses, but rather with "highly respected central bankers."
Special Connection
There is in fact nothing unusual about how Germany deals with the precious metal. Many other central banks store a portion of their gold reserves abroad. The Netherlands, for example, places its trust in its colleagues in Ottawa, New York and London.
But the relationship Germans have with their gold is a special one. Germany hoards nearly 3,600 metric tons of the precious metal -- only the US has more. Much of this gold treasure was amassed under the Bretton Woods international monetary system, in which the dollar served as the world's key currency and was directly convertible to fixed quantities of gold.
Before the gold standard was terminated in 1971, the current account surpluses generated by Germany's "economic miracle" were partially balanced out in gold. Thousands of US bars of gold alone were transferred to German ownership.
But since the euro is not backed by gold, such vast reserves are actually no longer necessary. Nevertheless, the Germans continue to resolutely defend them -- and every attempt to use this treasure has been met with dismay.
There has been no lack of proposals: Former German President Roman Herzog wanted to sell the gold to form the basis for a capital-based nursing care insurance scheme. In 2002, FDP parliamentary floor leader Rainer Brüderle proposed a fund for natural disasters. Former Bundesbank head Ernst Welteke added to the debate by suggesting the foundation of a national educational fund. But none of these ideas were ever taken seriously.
Most recently, German Chancellor Angela Merkel of the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) shot down an idea by the euro partners to use the reserves as collateral for euro bonds.
Strict Security
As a result, in addition to safeguarding the reserves of over 60 countries, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York continues to hold 1,536 metric tons of German gold -- or nearly half of Berlin's reserves. This enormous hoard of gold is stored in the fifth subfloor of the bank's building on Liberty Street, 25 meters (80 feet) below street level, and 15 meters below sea level. According to the bank's website, the vault rests on the bedrock of Manhattan Island.
Tourists are allowed to venture below street level to see the vault. After descending in an elevator, they stand in front of an enormous steel cylinder that pivots like a door in a 140-ton steel-and-concrete frame. But not even the owners are allowed to view their own gold. According to the Federal Audit Office report, the Fed explained that "in the interest of security and of the control process" no "viewings" are possible.
Finally, in 2007, "following numerous enquiries," Bundesbank staff members were allowed to see the facility, but they reportedly only made it to the anteroom of the German reserves.
In fact, auditors from the Bundesbank made a second visit in May 2011. This time one of the nine compartments was also opened, in which the German gold bars are densely stacked. A few were pulled out and weighed. But this part of the report has been blacked out -- out of consideration for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
"I would like more transparency on the issue," says Bundesbank board member Thiele. The Americans are very sensitive, though, when it comes to security procedures in their gold storage facilities. In their second major depository, the legendary Fort Knox, practically no one in recent decades has been allowed to view the gold reserves.
Fuelling Legends
Such intense secrecy fuels legends. Many conspiracy theorists have suspected for decades that the German gold has long since disappeared. Others believe that it has been lent out. They contend that there are only promissory notes of little worth stored in the bank's vaults.
Another myth that has been making the rounds in nationalist-oriented German circles is that the US refused to hand over the treasure and threatened during the Cold War to withdraw its troops from Germany if the Germans demanded their gold back. Former Bundesbank head Karl Blessing, according to the theory, had to provide the US written confirmation that he would never do such a thing.
This letter, as it happens, actually exists, as Blessing confirmed in his last interview with SPIEGEL in 1971 -- except it doesn't concern the German gold, but rather US gold reserves. Until 1971, every dollar could be exchanged for the precious metal. Blessing thus promised the US Federal Reserve that he would no longer convert the colossal German dollar reserves to gold because this would have caused the currency's value to plummet.
Today, this historic document is even available online. But that hasn't silenced those who oppose stockpiling German gold abroad. Instead, the debate over a collapse of strictly paper-based currency is experiencing a renaissance -- as is the dispute over the gold reserves. Even Green Party financial expert Gerhard Schick has joined the fray: "I think the question of how much gold is available in an emergency is a valid concern."
 |
| 德國和其他國家一樣存儲黃金在世界各地的各央行。 |
Outlandish Idea
From a purely logistical perspective, though, returning the reserves seems outlandish. One cannot simply pack 1,500 tons of gold into an Airbus A380 super-jumbo jet and fly it back to Germany.
The Bundesbank also objects to this notion for another reason. It says the gold is supposed to act as an emergency buffer. In the extreme situation of a currency collapse, the bankers say that the gold bars could easily and quickly be exchanged on location for pounds or dollars to pay urgent bills.
In a bid to calm the debate, the Bundesbank has pledged to bring back and inspect 150 tons of gold from abroad over the next three years. Furthermore, there are plans to count and weigh the gold bars stored in one of the nine chambers at the Fed in New York -- although no date has been set for this.
Bundesbank board member Thiele was also recently in New York where he took a look behind one of the vault doors. He had good news for the members of the parliamentary budget committee: "There was no paper in there, just gold."
But that's not enough for CSU politician Gauweiler. He's only prepared to put the matter to rest when the central bank has thoroughly inspected all the German reserves throughout the entire world. His credo: "The Bundesbank is independent, but it can't do what it wants."
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