中國央行數據顯示，截至6月末，中國黃金儲備增至5331萬盎司（1658噸），較此前的3389萬盎司（1054.6噸）大幅增加57%，這是中國黃金儲備自2009年4月以來首次增加。數據顯示當前央行的黃金占款成本僅為600多美元每盎司。
中國央行在隨後的新聞發布會上表示：
人民銀行、外匯局按照國際貨幣基金組織數據公佈特殊標準（SDDS）公佈了我國外匯儲備、黃金儲備等數據，相應調整了我國外債數據口徑，公佈了包含人民幣外債在內的全口徑外債。
未來需繼續統籌考慮民間投資需求與國際儲備資產配置需要，靈活操作增持黃金。將通過國內外多種途徑增持。投資黃金對風險管理有益。
基於對黃金的資產價值評估和價格變化分析,在不對市場造成衝擊和影響的前提下，我國央行通過國內外多種渠道,逐步積累了這部分黃金儲備。增持渠道主要包括國內雜金提純、生產收貯、國內外市場交易等方式。
黃金具有特殊的風險收益特性,在特定時期是不錯的投資品種。但黃金市場的容量與我國外匯儲備規模相比較小，如果外匯儲備短時間大量購金，易對市場造成影響。
儘管與過去相比，黃金已不再與紙幣掛鉤，但它仍是一種重要的避險資產，是許多國家外匯儲備的重要組成部分，本次增持之後以市價計算，黃金佔中國外匯儲備的比例仍不足1.7%，遠遠低於很多發達國家的水平。
IMF總裁拉加德(Christina Lagarde)曾經表示，黃金在一國外匯儲備中的理想比例至少應該是5%。中國6月末外匯儲備3.69萬億美元，以市價計算黃金儲備應為5000噸左右。
中國是全球最大的黃金生產國，也是僅次於印度的第二大黃金消費國。但中國央行自09年更新黃金儲備量數據後，六年多來該數據一直未有變動。不過本次數據的更新可能略低於“市場預期”，此前彭博的報導稱，基於貿易數據、內地產量和中國黃金協會的數據統計，中國央行的黃金儲備可能已經達到3510噸。
本次黃金儲備數據更新後，中國1658噸的黃金儲備超越了俄羅斯成為全球第五大黃金儲備國。根據世界黃金協會（WCG）7月公佈的數據，俄羅斯持有黃金1251噸，為全球第五大黃金儲備國(除IMF)。排名第一的美國黃金儲備8133.5噸。
本次央行數據顯示中國黃金5331萬盎司的儲備占款2094.73億元，以6.2匯率折合每盎司成本633.76美元，大幅低於近幾年的國際黃金均價。而09年4月至今的數據顯示當時的成本僅為318美元/盎司，若考慮到之前人民幣匯率較低的情況，這個成本會更加便宜。
有評論認為，成本數據顯示中國央行對黃金的增持可能並非是近期的一次性行為。
本週五國際黃金價格交投於1143美元/盎司附近。
Showing posts with label 黃金儲備. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 黃金儲備. Show all posts
Sunday, 19 July 2015
Thursday, 26 March 2015
德國央行高管：德國取回黃金行動仍順利進行
德國央行[微博]市場副主管Henner Asche在近日稱，德國央行取回黃金( 1132.30 , -11.60 , -1.01% )的行動仍然在順利進行中。
自從德國央行宣布要從海外取回自己的黃金儲備以來，已經差不多兩年過去了。
Asche說：“總體來說，我們對黃金的轉移是滿意的。”
據世界黃金協會(WGC)的數據顯示，目前德國是全球排名第二的黃金儲備國，總共持有黃金3384.2噸。
德國央行在海外的黃金儲備散佈在巴黎、倫敦和紐約。Asche稱，其中1447噸被放在紐約聯儲、438噸被放在英格蘭銀行，還有307噸在法蘭西銀行。
Asche表示，到目前為止，有67噸黃金被從巴黎運回法蘭克福，有90噸黃金從紐約運回法蘭克福。德國的黃金取回計劃中，要在2020年前將其一半的黃金儲備運至法蘭克福存儲。
在2013年，德國央行宣布將取回在巴黎和紐約的674噸黃金。市場對此有諸多猜測，其中很大猜測是德國對其存於海外黃金的安全的懷疑。
Asche表示，取回黃金100%是德國央行自己的決定，沒有任何政治壓力。“德國政府並不擁有這些儲備。”並且他表示，取回黃金並不是因為德國對存在美聯儲的黃金是否還存在有所懷疑。
在2013年僅僅從紐約取回了5噸黃金後，曾經有大量質疑，但2014年德國央行即拿回了85噸黃金。
Asche表示，之所以不把存於海外的黃金都運回來是因為一旦德國央行決定要用黃金來換現金或者外匯，那麼紐約提供了便利。
Asche稱，取回的黃金都被重新熔鑄成符合倫敦黃金交割標準的金條，國際清算銀行(BIS)會做現場監督。
“在德國，大家都很關心黃金儲備的新聞，德國公眾對央行的黃金儲備表示滿意。”
自從德國央行宣布要從海外取回自己的黃金儲備以來，已經差不多兩年過去了。
Asche說：“總體來說，我們對黃金的轉移是滿意的。”
據世界黃金協會(WGC)的數據顯示，目前德國是全球排名第二的黃金儲備國，總共持有黃金3384.2噸。
德國央行在海外的黃金儲備散佈在巴黎、倫敦和紐約。Asche稱，其中1447噸被放在紐約聯儲、438噸被放在英格蘭銀行，還有307噸在法蘭西銀行。
Asche表示，到目前為止，有67噸黃金被從巴黎運回法蘭克福，有90噸黃金從紐約運回法蘭克福。德國的黃金取回計劃中，要在2020年前將其一半的黃金儲備運至法蘭克福存儲。
在2013年，德國央行宣布將取回在巴黎和紐約的674噸黃金。市場對此有諸多猜測，其中很大猜測是德國對其存於海外黃金的安全的懷疑。
Asche表示，取回黃金100%是德國央行自己的決定，沒有任何政治壓力。“德國政府並不擁有這些儲備。”並且他表示，取回黃金並不是因為德國對存在美聯儲的黃金是否還存在有所懷疑。
在2013年僅僅從紐約取回了5噸黃金後，曾經有大量質疑，但2014年德國央行即拿回了85噸黃金。
Asche表示，之所以不把存於海外的黃金都運回來是因為一旦德國央行決定要用黃金來換現金或者外匯，那麼紐約提供了便利。
Asche稱，取回的黃金都被重新熔鑄成符合倫敦黃金交割標準的金條，國際清算銀行(BIS)會做現場監督。
“在德國，大家都很關心黃金儲備的新聞，德國公眾對央行的黃金儲備表示滿意。”
Friday, 6 March 2015
海外分析師牛人稱中國實際儲備了3萬噸黃金
去年黃金分析師阿拉斯代爾·麥克勞德（Alasdair Macleod）指出，中國在1982年至2003年間累計儲存了2.5萬噸黃金。
而另外一名久負盛名的分析師則認為，中國各政府部門賬戶加起來，實際黃金擁有量達3萬噸之多，並稱未來三年人民幣將與黃金掛鉤。中國向國際貨幣基金組織上報的官方數據僅有1054.6噸，但人們普遍認為，過去幾年中國額外儲備了高達五千噸的黃金，並將其存放在非政府賬戶中。當然，這還不包括大量過去被購買、儲藏的黃金，它們也從未進入官方數據中。
那麼中國究竟儲備了多少黃金。Simon Hunt戰略服務公司（原隸屬於世界知名礦業和金屬諮詢機構Brook Hunt,後Brook Hunt被Wood Mackenzie收購）首席執行官塞門-亨特（Simon Hunt）給出了3萬噸的數字。近期他在寫給客戶的信中說，“中國儲備的黃金比我們知道的要多的多。正如黃金分析第一人阿拉斯代爾·麥克勞德所說，中國在1982到2003年間存儲了2.5萬噸黃金。因此，中國目前的黃金持有量可能在3萬噸左右，不像美國，後者已將大多數黃金出售或租賃。”
當下，這樣的言論出自一些厲害的分析師之口都可能被忽略，但亨特除外，他在金屬和礦產領域對中國戰略行動的洞察深刻。
亨特寫給客戶的信中，大致說了三點：
1、中國今年下半年將重拳對金融系統、重工業、製造業和房地產領域進行結構調整。這將導致一段“受控制的危機時期”，不僅對大多數外國人產生衝擊，還將影響全球。
2、中國不希望人民幣成為全球儲備貨幣，但希望成為貿易結算貨幣，以及進入央行和其他金融機構資產組合。
3、中國不相信華盛頓在管理美元這一單一儲備貨幣時，能從全球利益出發，認為美國祇會考慮自身的利益。歷史上來看，美國曾通過通 脹，將債務負擔轉嫁給其他國家。中國可能未來三年將人民幣與美元掛鉤，而在此之前，中國政府必須調整經濟結構，保持經濟穩定，儘管過程痛苦。
有些證據能夠表明中國確有大量不為人知的金庫，但即便見過金庫，面對大量的金條，人們也很難知道其真正的數值。
目前，媒體上充斥著“貨幣戰爭”的論調。亨特認為，中國意識到了這一點，並在調整戰略計劃，中國感覺到了人民幣（與黃金掛鉤）穩定對於未來大國主宰全球金融秩序至關重要。不過亨特人民幣還沒有必要成為全球儲備貨幣。中國儲備黃金的行動和俄羅斯，可能還有部分金磚國家一致。
中國在推動人民幣國際化方面取得了不少進展。迄今為止，中國已經和28個國家建立了貨幣互換協議，並在蘇黎世建立了一個人民幣交易中心。這些舉措提升了人民幣在國際支付中的地位。
如果中國真有3萬噸黃金，那麼人民幣的信譽將擁有強大的後盾。即便沒有3萬噸，考慮到流入中國的黃金量以及中國央行可能未上報的黃金儲備量，中國未來在全球金融秩序調整中也處於有利地位。
而另外一名久負盛名的分析師則認為，中國各政府部門賬戶加起來，實際黃金擁有量達3萬噸之多，並稱未來三年人民幣將與黃金掛鉤。中國向國際貨幣基金組織上報的官方數據僅有1054.6噸，但人們普遍認為，過去幾年中國額外儲備了高達五千噸的黃金，並將其存放在非政府賬戶中。當然，這還不包括大量過去被購買、儲藏的黃金，它們也從未進入官方數據中。
那麼中國究竟儲備了多少黃金。Simon Hunt戰略服務公司（原隸屬於世界知名礦業和金屬諮詢機構Brook Hunt,後Brook Hunt被Wood Mackenzie收購）首席執行官塞門-亨特（Simon Hunt）給出了3萬噸的數字。近期他在寫給客戶的信中說，“中國儲備的黃金比我們知道的要多的多。正如黃金分析第一人阿拉斯代爾·麥克勞德所說，中國在1982到2003年間存儲了2.5萬噸黃金。因此，中國目前的黃金持有量可能在3萬噸左右，不像美國，後者已將大多數黃金出售或租賃。”
當下，這樣的言論出自一些厲害的分析師之口都可能被忽略，但亨特除外，他在金屬和礦產領域對中國戰略行動的洞察深刻。
亨特寫給客戶的信中，大致說了三點：
1、中國今年下半年將重拳對金融系統、重工業、製造業和房地產領域進行結構調整。這將導致一段“受控制的危機時期”，不僅對大多數外國人產生衝擊，還將影響全球。
2、中國不希望人民幣成為全球儲備貨幣，但希望成為貿易結算貨幣，以及進入央行和其他金融機構資產組合。
3、中國不相信華盛頓在管理美元這一單一儲備貨幣時，能從全球利益出發，認為美國祇會考慮自身的利益。歷史上來看，美國曾通過通 脹，將債務負擔轉嫁給其他國家。中國可能未來三年將人民幣與美元掛鉤，而在此之前，中國政府必須調整經濟結構，保持經濟穩定，儘管過程痛苦。
有些證據能夠表明中國確有大量不為人知的金庫，但即便見過金庫，面對大量的金條，人們也很難知道其真正的數值。
目前，媒體上充斥著“貨幣戰爭”的論調。亨特認為，中國意識到了這一點，並在調整戰略計劃，中國感覺到了人民幣（與黃金掛鉤）穩定對於未來大國主宰全球金融秩序至關重要。不過亨特人民幣還沒有必要成為全球儲備貨幣。中國儲備黃金的行動和俄羅斯，可能還有部分金磚國家一致。
中國在推動人民幣國際化方面取得了不少進展。迄今為止，中國已經和28個國家建立了貨幣互換協議，並在蘇黎世建立了一個人民幣交易中心。這些舉措提升了人民幣在國際支付中的地位。
如果中國真有3萬噸黃金，那麼人民幣的信譽將擁有強大的後盾。即便沒有3萬噸，考慮到流入中國的黃金量以及中國央行可能未上報的黃金儲備量，中國未來在全球金融秩序調整中也處於有利地位。
Monday, 29 July 2013
專家：若中國央行買金屬實金價將漲到1500美元
美國《福布斯》傳言中國央行秘密增金4000噸
本報訊（記者井楠）上週，美國《福布斯》雜誌網站刊發了美國版《貨幣戰爭》作者詹姆斯·里卡茲（James Rickards）的觀點：中國央行正在囤積增持黃金，並準備將其用作貨幣戰爭中強有力的武器；預計2014年4月，中國央行將突然宣布擁有5000噸黃金儲備；距離中國央行2009年宣布的1054噸黃金儲備，將有近4000噸的增持。他還認為，中國央行可能不願意公佈其黃金儲備，因為這樣肯定會刺激金價上漲。
央行購金的傳聞由來已久
對於消息的真實性，記者廣泛問詢了業內人士的觀點。由於近3年來，經由中國香港海關進口到內地的黃金數據一直與內地的黃金需求量數據不符（前者每月高於後者3%~10%的幅度），央行購金的傳聞由來已久，因此對於此次4000噸傳聞，多數業內人士表示相信。
業內資深人士認為：“2009年年初公佈的增金400噸的數據，也不是當年增加的，而是幾年裡慢慢累積的。因此，央行即使在增持黃金，也不可能隨時公佈出來，慢慢積累而已。距離2009年已經過去了4年，其間剛好是國際金融危機，央行的數據不可能沒有變化；中國央行的黃金外匯佔比一直比較低，很可能正在不斷增加。當然，實際增加數據無法估計，有可能沒有4000噸這麼多。”
傳聞購金點位可能不低
對於央行到底是什麼點位買進黃金的問題，猜測較多。廣東本地大型珠寶商家的張老闆認為：“按以往慣例，別說是4000噸，就是幾百噸黃金，一國的央行也不可能一蹴而就，都會幾十噸、十幾噸不斷建倉。如果傳言屬實，那麼央行可能是從1800美元以上的較高位置開始買進的。”
廣東省金銀珠寶商會的幾家會員企業認為：如果央行是從2013年大量買進的，那麼非常明智，但可能性不大。而且，傳聞央行購金始自3年之前，剛好是國際金價刷新1920美元歷史高位之際，而2013年1月之前，金價尚在1650美元以上位置波動；如果3年裡不斷買進，其平均價位無論如何也不可能在1700美元之下。
金市影響
傳聞若屬實金價可能很快突破1500美元
2009年11月，印度央行曾從國際貨幣基金組織那裡購買了200噸黃金，短時間裡推動國際金價上漲了15%。中央財經大學學者預期：一旦中國買金傳言屬實（且數額遠遠超過了200噸），有可能迅速短線推高金價反彈到1500美元以上的位置（距離目前位置約為15%），或能重啟牛市。
但即便傳聞屬實，是否能改變金價的命運，依然要看國際金融機構的態度：前期不斷打壓之後，是否已經盆滿缽滿？是否有意反手做多？大國政府與國際投行才享有黃金的實際定價權。中國“大媽”也好，央行也罷，買賣黃金多少，只能起到支撐金價的作用，無法改變中長線趨勢。
也可能是“陰謀” 需要警惕國際投行“借題發揮”
不過，據了解，《福布斯》雜誌社與國際金融寡頭、華爾街勢力關係密切，此次有關中國買金4000噸的傳聞出自其口中，值得機構和投資者玩味。不排除兩個可能性：一，國際投行為“反手做多”，操作釋放信號，借中國買金事件發揮；二，國際投行仍想進一步打壓金價至1050美元下方，希望榨出全球散戶更多的錢來。無論是前者還是後者，都值得中國“大媽”提防。
本報訊（記者井楠）上週，美國《福布斯》雜誌網站刊發了美國版《貨幣戰爭》作者詹姆斯·里卡茲（James Rickards）的觀點：中國央行正在囤積增持黃金，並準備將其用作貨幣戰爭中強有力的武器；預計2014年4月，中國央行將突然宣布擁有5000噸黃金儲備；距離中國央行2009年宣布的1054噸黃金儲備，將有近4000噸的增持。他還認為，中國央行可能不願意公佈其黃金儲備，因為這樣肯定會刺激金價上漲。
央行購金的傳聞由來已久
對於消息的真實性，記者廣泛問詢了業內人士的觀點。由於近3年來，經由中國香港海關進口到內地的黃金數據一直與內地的黃金需求量數據不符（前者每月高於後者3%~10%的幅度），央行購金的傳聞由來已久，因此對於此次4000噸傳聞，多數業內人士表示相信。
業內資深人士認為：“2009年年初公佈的增金400噸的數據，也不是當年增加的，而是幾年裡慢慢累積的。因此，央行即使在增持黃金，也不可能隨時公佈出來，慢慢積累而已。距離2009年已經過去了4年，其間剛好是國際金融危機，央行的數據不可能沒有變化；中國央行的黃金外匯佔比一直比較低，很可能正在不斷增加。當然，實際增加數據無法估計，有可能沒有4000噸這麼多。”
傳聞購金點位可能不低
對於央行到底是什麼點位買進黃金的問題，猜測較多。廣東本地大型珠寶商家的張老闆認為：“按以往慣例，別說是4000噸，就是幾百噸黃金，一國的央行也不可能一蹴而就，都會幾十噸、十幾噸不斷建倉。如果傳言屬實，那麼央行可能是從1800美元以上的較高位置開始買進的。”
廣東省金銀珠寶商會的幾家會員企業認為：如果央行是從2013年大量買進的，那麼非常明智，但可能性不大。而且，傳聞央行購金始自3年之前，剛好是國際金價刷新1920美元歷史高位之際，而2013年1月之前，金價尚在1650美元以上位置波動；如果3年裡不斷買進，其平均價位無論如何也不可能在1700美元之下。
金市影響
傳聞若屬實金價可能很快突破1500美元
2009年11月，印度央行曾從國際貨幣基金組織那裡購買了200噸黃金，短時間裡推動國際金價上漲了15%。中央財經大學學者預期：一旦中國買金傳言屬實（且數額遠遠超過了200噸），有可能迅速短線推高金價反彈到1500美元以上的位置（距離目前位置約為15%），或能重啟牛市。
但即便傳聞屬實，是否能改變金價的命運，依然要看國際金融機構的態度：前期不斷打壓之後，是否已經盆滿缽滿？是否有意反手做多？大國政府與國際投行才享有黃金的實際定價權。中國“大媽”也好，央行也罷，買賣黃金多少，只能起到支撐金價的作用，無法改變中長線趨勢。
也可能是“陰謀” 需要警惕國際投行“借題發揮”
不過，據了解，《福布斯》雜誌社與國際金融寡頭、華爾街勢力關係密切，此次有關中國買金4000噸的傳聞出自其口中，值得機構和投資者玩味。不排除兩個可能性：一，國際投行為“反手做多”，操作釋放信號，借中國買金事件發揮；二，國際投行仍想進一步打壓金價至1050美元下方，希望榨出全球散戶更多的錢來。無論是前者還是後者，都值得中國“大媽”提防。
Saturday, 29 June 2013
金價熊央行輸5萬億
美國新公布的經濟數據強勁，金價周四失守1,200美元心理關口後，倫敦現貨金價昨進一步低見每安士1,180.5美元，再創二○一○年八月以來新低，雖然其後回穩，但全季仍挫25%，勢創一九二○年有紀錄以來最大單季跌市，令上半年跌幅擴至28%。有統計顯示，全球央行的黃金儲備價值自二○一一年高峰回落4,290億英鎊（約5.07萬億港元）。
現貨金半年瀉近三成
隨着美國經濟逐步好轉及美元轉強，黃金投資吸引力驟降，金市在四月中一度急插，率先技術上步進熊市，雖然之後在「中國大媽」及印度消費者掀起搶金潮支持下曾反彈13%，惟因美國聯儲局主席伯南克在五月及六月先後暗示退市，加上印度政府限制黃金進口和中國爆發信貸緊縮，觸發金價新一輪跌浪。
多家大行季內不斷調低金價預測，當中高盛最淡，料金價明年底瀉至1,050美元。印度寶石及珠寶貿易聯會預期當地第三季黃金入口量將跌52%至150噸，除政府限購外，盧比貶值亦削弱當地購買力。
全球央行黃金儲備縮水
主要商品年內表現
英國《每日電訊報》引述期權交易商Banc DeBinary指，金價由一一年紀錄高位回落，全球央行持有的黃金儲備迄今錄得4,290億英鎊帳面損失，總值回落至約8,000億英鎊。該行行政總裁勞倫特質疑央行應否把龐大資金投放於低回報資產如黃金，惟稱是否沽金往往很難抉擇。
短期走勢 好淡參半
澳洲銀行經濟師奈特表示，從交易所買賣基金（ETF）洗倉活動可見，投資者明顯對黃金已失去信心，但由於跌勢過急，相信仍有部分人有興趣吸納。
據統計顯示，投資者今年從交易所買賣產品（ETP）拋售583.2噸黃金，令相關基金規模縮水逾620億美元。據彭博社調查顯示，15名受訪分析員預期下周金價上升，另有14人預期金價下滑，3人則持中性立場。
「新債王」岡拉克周四於投資會議上表示黃金看似已死，但同時存在大幅向下和攀升空間，稱金價有機會再跌兩成，亦可能由現水平抽升五成。不過，如採取人棄我取的投資策略，他會選擇新興市場股票多過黃金。
其他商品方面，銀價今季跌勢比黃金更狠，低見每安士18.2305美元，為二○一○年八月以來最低，全季瀉34%，僅次於一九八○年首季的58%跌幅，而上半年累跌38%，是眾商品之中最傷。倫敦期銅本季跌11%，亦是二○一一年第三季以來最慘。今年以來，涵蓋24種商品的標普GSCI商品指數回報跌4.6%。
布油半年跌7% 紐油穩
紐約期油昨連升五日，為四月以來最長升浪，曾漲最多0.79%至97.82美元，勢連續兩季錄得升幅。不過，布蘭特期油連跌三季，今季截至周四止跌6.5%，表現為一年以來最差，上半年亦累跌7.5%。
現貨金半年瀉近三成
隨着美國經濟逐步好轉及美元轉強，黃金投資吸引力驟降，金市在四月中一度急插，率先技術上步進熊市，雖然之後在「中國大媽」及印度消費者掀起搶金潮支持下曾反彈13%，惟因美國聯儲局主席伯南克在五月及六月先後暗示退市，加上印度政府限制黃金進口和中國爆發信貸緊縮，觸發金價新一輪跌浪。
多家大行季內不斷調低金價預測，當中高盛最淡，料金價明年底瀉至1,050美元。印度寶石及珠寶貿易聯會預期當地第三季黃金入口量將跌52%至150噸，除政府限購外，盧比貶值亦削弱當地購買力。
全球央行黃金儲備縮水
主要商品年內表現
英國《每日電訊報》引述期權交易商Banc DeBinary指，金價由一一年紀錄高位回落，全球央行持有的黃金儲備迄今錄得4,290億英鎊帳面損失，總值回落至約8,000億英鎊。該行行政總裁勞倫特質疑央行應否把龐大資金投放於低回報資產如黃金，惟稱是否沽金往往很難抉擇。
短期走勢 好淡參半
澳洲銀行經濟師奈特表示，從交易所買賣基金（ETF）洗倉活動可見，投資者明顯對黃金已失去信心，但由於跌勢過急，相信仍有部分人有興趣吸納。
據統計顯示，投資者今年從交易所買賣產品（ETP）拋售583.2噸黃金，令相關基金規模縮水逾620億美元。據彭博社調查顯示，15名受訪分析員預期下周金價上升，另有14人預期金價下滑，3人則持中性立場。
「新債王」岡拉克周四於投資會議上表示黃金看似已死，但同時存在大幅向下和攀升空間，稱金價有機會再跌兩成，亦可能由現水平抽升五成。不過，如採取人棄我取的投資策略，他會選擇新興市場股票多過黃金。
其他商品方面，銀價今季跌勢比黃金更狠，低見每安士18.2305美元，為二○一○年八月以來最低，全季瀉34%，僅次於一九八○年首季的58%跌幅，而上半年累跌38%，是眾商品之中最傷。倫敦期銅本季跌11%，亦是二○一一年第三季以來最慘。今年以來，涵蓋24種商品的標普GSCI商品指數回報跌4.6%。
布油半年跌7% 紐油穩
紐約期油昨連升五日，為四月以來最長升浪，曾漲最多0.79%至97.82美元，勢連續兩季錄得升幅。不過，布蘭特期油連跌三季，今季截至周四止跌6.5%，表現為一年以來最差，上半年亦累跌7.5%。
Sunday, 23 June 2013
中國民間的黃金儲備
宋鴻兵
2002年之前，中國民間的黃金儲備幾乎為零。經過10年積累，中國民間的黃金儲備已達3000噸，官方約1000噸，中國人總共擁有至少4000噸黃金！從長遠看，4000噸黃金遠比1700億美元的紙片更靠譜！今年4、5月，中國人黃金購買量相當於全球同期礦產金的總產量！上海金交所的黃金出庫量已10倍於美國COMEX市場！
有些人看不到黃金市場正在發生的深刻變化，盲目認為華爾街定價權將會永世長存。美國的定價權，歸根結底在於其8000噸黃金儲備，託管著全球央行黃金12000噸，黃金EFT所控制的民間儲備1000噸，以及期貨市場的250噸，總計21250噸，其中約半數已被租借。以中國的黃金購買規模，5年後黃金市場就會強弱逆轉！
黃金定價權是貨幣定價權的戰略制高點。倫敦定價黃金的時代，英鎊就橫行世界，紐約定價黃金的時期，美元就是霸主。黃金以哪種貨幣定價，哪種貨幣就是老大！黃金的價格，並非簡單地反應通脹水平，更準確地說，它全面反應了在霸權國家的全球治理下，世界人民對政治、經濟、地緣、戰爭、危機的綜合感受！
黃金市場被美國政府高度關注，實屬理所當然，因為黃金價格直接反應了全世界對美元的感受！在經濟正常的狀態下，美國政府不會直接干預市場，但在極端情況下，美國政府必然干預黃金價格，改變市場預期，強化美元地位。黃金價格越是極端波動，越是說明局勢相當不穩。美國國債近來遭到大規模拋售就是明證！
2002年之前，中國民間的黃金儲備幾乎為零。經過10年積累，中國民間的黃金儲備已達3000噸，官方約1000噸，中國人總共擁有至少4000噸黃金！從長遠看，4000噸黃金遠比1700億美元的紙片更靠譜！今年4、5月，中國人黃金購買量相當於全球同期礦產金的總產量！上海金交所的黃金出庫量已10倍於美國COMEX市場！
有些人看不到黃金市場正在發生的深刻變化，盲目認為華爾街定價權將會永世長存。美國的定價權，歸根結底在於其8000噸黃金儲備，託管著全球央行黃金12000噸，黃金EFT所控制的民間儲備1000噸，以及期貨市場的250噸，總計21250噸，其中約半數已被租借。以中國的黃金購買規模，5年後黃金市場就會強弱逆轉！
黃金定價權是貨幣定價權的戰略制高點。倫敦定價黃金的時代，英鎊就橫行世界，紐約定價黃金的時期，美元就是霸主。黃金以哪種貨幣定價，哪種貨幣就是老大！黃金的價格，並非簡單地反應通脹水平，更準確地說，它全面反應了在霸權國家的全球治理下，世界人民對政治、經濟、地緣、戰爭、危機的綜合感受！
黃金市場被美國政府高度關注，實屬理所當然，因為黃金價格直接反應了全世界對美元的感受！在經濟正常的狀態下，美國政府不會直接干預市場，但在極端情況下，美國政府必然干預黃金價格，改變市場預期，強化美元地位。黃金價格越是極端波動，越是說明局勢相當不穩。美國國債近來遭到大規模拋售就是明證！
Monday, 21 January 2013
為什麼德國希望看到其國在美國的黃金
Why Germany Wants to See its US Gold
Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann wanted to personally convince Peter Gauweiler that the German gold was still where it should be. Early this summer, the head of Germany's central bank took the obstinate politician from the conservative Christian Social Union (CSU), a party that is a member of the government coalition in Berlin, and a number of his colleagues into the Bundesbank's inner sanctum: the gold vault.
But even this personal inspection wasn't enough to reassure the visiting member of parliament -- on the contrary: "The Bundesbank monitors its domestic gold in an exemplary fashion," Gauweiler says, "and this makes it all the more incomprehensible that the bank doesn't look after its reserves abroad."
For quite some time now, Gauweiler has been pestering the government and the Bundesbank with questions concerning where and how the country's reserves are stored, and how often they are checked. He has submitted requests and commissioned reports on the topic.
Last week, Gauweiler celebrated his greatest triumph to date in his gold campaign, which has been a source of some amusement for many fellow German politicians: A secret report by the Federal Audit Office had been made public -- and it contained stern criticism of the German central bank in Frankfurt. The Bonn-based auditors urged a better inventory system, including quality checks.
This demand, which even the bank's inspectors saw as nothing more than routine, alarmed the Berlin political establishment. Indeed, the partially blacked-out report read like the prologue to an espionage thriller in which the stunned central bankers could end up standing in front of empty vaults in the US.
'Grotesque Debate'
For decades, German central bankers have contented themselves with written affirmations from their American colleagues that the gold still remains where it is said to be stored. According to the report, the bar list from New York stems from "1979/1980." The report also noted that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York refuses to allow the gold's owners to view their own reserves.
Not surprisingly, this prompted strong reactions in Berlin: The relevant Bundesbank board member Carl-Ludwig Thiele was summoned to Berlin to provide an explanation to the parliamentary budget committee. Heinz-Peter Haustein of the business-friendly Free Democratic Party (FDP) was even quoted by Germany's mass-circulation Bild newspaper as saying that "all the gold has to be shipped back."
The Bundesbank's otherwise reserved Thiele said that he found at least "part of the debate" to be "rather grotesque." His financial institution currently has more pressing problems. Bundesbank head Weidmann, for example, is desperately fighting the European Central Bank (ECB) decision to buy unlimited quantities of sovereign bonds from crisis-ridden countries as a way of lowering their borrowing costs. In addition, the Bundesbank has already pumped nearly €700 billion ($906 billion) into primarily southern European countries as part of the euro-zone central bank transfers known as Target II.
Germany's gold reserves are currently worth some €144 billion and are not stored "with dubious business partners," as Thiele stresses, but rather with "highly respected central bankers."
Special Connection
There is in fact nothing unusual about how Germany deals with the precious metal. Many other central banks store a portion of their gold reserves abroad. The Netherlands, for example, places its trust in its colleagues in Ottawa, New York and London.
But the relationship Germans have with their gold is a special one. Germany hoards nearly 3,600 metric tons of the precious metal -- only the US has more. Much of this gold treasure was amassed under the Bretton Woods international monetary system, in which the dollar served as the world's key currency and was directly convertible to fixed quantities of gold.
Before the gold standard was terminated in 1971, the current account surpluses generated by Germany's "economic miracle" were partially balanced out in gold. Thousands of US bars of gold alone were transferred to German ownership.
But since the euro is not backed by gold, such vast reserves are actually no longer necessary. Nevertheless, the Germans continue to resolutely defend them -- and every attempt to use this treasure has been met with dismay.
There has been no lack of proposals: Former German President Roman Herzog wanted to sell the gold to form the basis for a capital-based nursing care insurance scheme. In 2002, FDP parliamentary floor leader Rainer Brüderle proposed a fund for natural disasters. Former Bundesbank head Ernst Welteke added to the debate by suggesting the foundation of a national educational fund. But none of these ideas were ever taken seriously.
Most recently, German Chancellor Angela Merkel of the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) shot down an idea by the euro partners to use the reserves as collateral for euro bonds.
Strict Security
As a result, in addition to safeguarding the reserves of over 60 countries, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York continues to hold 1,536 metric tons of German gold -- or nearly half of Berlin's reserves. This enormous hoard of gold is stored in the fifth subfloor of the bank's building on Liberty Street, 25 meters (80 feet) below street level, and 15 meters below sea level. According to the bank's website, the vault rests on the bedrock of Manhattan Island.
Tourists are allowed to venture below street level to see the vault. After descending in an elevator, they stand in front of an enormous steel cylinder that pivots like a door in a 140-ton steel-and-concrete frame. But not even the owners are allowed to view their own gold. According to the Federal Audit Office report, the Fed explained that "in the interest of security and of the control process" no "viewings" are possible.
Finally, in 2007, "following numerous enquiries," Bundesbank staff members were allowed to see the facility, but they reportedly only made it to the anteroom of the German reserves.
In fact, auditors from the Bundesbank made a second visit in May 2011. This time one of the nine compartments was also opened, in which the German gold bars are densely stacked. A few were pulled out and weighed. But this part of the report has been blacked out -- out of consideration for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
"I would like more transparency on the issue," says Bundesbank board member Thiele. The Americans are very sensitive, though, when it comes to security procedures in their gold storage facilities. In their second major depository, the legendary Fort Knox, practically no one in recent decades has been allowed to view the gold reserves.
Fuelling Legends
Such intense secrecy fuels legends. Many conspiracy theorists have suspected for decades that the German gold has long since disappeared. Others believe that it has been lent out. They contend that there are only promissory notes of little worth stored in the bank's vaults.
Another myth that has been making the rounds in nationalist-oriented German circles is that the US refused to hand over the treasure and threatened during the Cold War to withdraw its troops from Germany if the Germans demanded their gold back. Former Bundesbank head Karl Blessing, according to the theory, had to provide the US written confirmation that he would never do such a thing.
This letter, as it happens, actually exists, as Blessing confirmed in his last interview with SPIEGEL in 1971 -- except it doesn't concern the German gold, but rather US gold reserves. Until 1971, every dollar could be exchanged for the precious metal. Blessing thus promised the US Federal Reserve that he would no longer convert the colossal German dollar reserves to gold because this would have caused the currency's value to plummet.
Today, this historic document is even available online. But that hasn't silenced those who oppose stockpiling German gold abroad. Instead, the debate over a collapse of strictly paper-based currency is experiencing a renaissance -- as is the dispute over the gold reserves. Even Green Party financial expert Gerhard Schick has joined the fray: "I think the question of how much gold is available in an emergency is a valid concern."
Outlandish Idea
From a purely logistical perspective, though, returning the reserves seems outlandish. One cannot simply pack 1,500 tons of gold into an Airbus A380 super-jumbo jet and fly it back to Germany.
The Bundesbank also objects to this notion for another reason. It says the gold is supposed to act as an emergency buffer. In the extreme situation of a currency collapse, the bankers say that the gold bars could easily and quickly be exchanged on location for pounds or dollars to pay urgent bills.
In a bid to calm the debate, the Bundesbank has pledged to bring back and inspect 150 tons of gold from abroad over the next three years. Furthermore, there are plans to count and weigh the gold bars stored in one of the nine chambers at the Fed in New York -- although no date has been set for this.
Bundesbank board member Thiele was also recently in New York where he took a look behind one of the vault doors. He had good news for the members of the parliamentary budget committee: "There was no paper in there, just gold."
But that's not enough for CSU politician Gauweiler. He's only prepared to put the matter to rest when the central bank has thoroughly inspected all the German reserves throughout the entire world. His credo: "The Bundesbank is independent, but it can't do what it wants."
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| 紐約聯邦儲備銀行持有1,536噸的德金 |
Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann wanted to personally convince Peter Gauweiler that the German gold was still where it should be. Early this summer, the head of Germany's central bank took the obstinate politician from the conservative Christian Social Union (CSU), a party that is a member of the government coalition in Berlin, and a number of his colleagues into the Bundesbank's inner sanctum: the gold vault.
There, 6,000 gold bars are stacked on industrial-strength shelves in a purpose-built building in Frankfurt. An additional 76,000 bars of bullion are stored in four safe boxes, in sealed containers.
But even this personal inspection wasn't enough to reassure the visiting member of parliament -- on the contrary: "The Bundesbank monitors its domestic gold in an exemplary fashion," Gauweiler says, "and this makes it all the more incomprehensible that the bank doesn't look after its reserves abroad."
For quite some time now, Gauweiler has been pestering the government and the Bundesbank with questions concerning where and how the country's reserves are stored, and how often they are checked. He has submitted requests and commissioned reports on the topic.
Last week, Gauweiler celebrated his greatest triumph to date in his gold campaign, which has been a source of some amusement for many fellow German politicians: A secret report by the Federal Audit Office had been made public -- and it contained stern criticism of the German central bank in Frankfurt. The Bonn-based auditors urged a better inventory system, including quality checks.
This demand, which even the bank's inspectors saw as nothing more than routine, alarmed the Berlin political establishment. Indeed, the partially blacked-out report read like the prologue to an espionage thriller in which the stunned central bankers could end up standing in front of empty vaults in the US.
'Grotesque Debate'
For decades, German central bankers have contented themselves with written affirmations from their American colleagues that the gold still remains where it is said to be stored. According to the report, the bar list from New York stems from "1979/1980." The report also noted that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York refuses to allow the gold's owners to view their own reserves.
Not surprisingly, this prompted strong reactions in Berlin: The relevant Bundesbank board member Carl-Ludwig Thiele was summoned to Berlin to provide an explanation to the parliamentary budget committee. Heinz-Peter Haustein of the business-friendly Free Democratic Party (FDP) was even quoted by Germany's mass-circulation Bild newspaper as saying that "all the gold has to be shipped back."
The Bundesbank's otherwise reserved Thiele said that he found at least "part of the debate" to be "rather grotesque." His financial institution currently has more pressing problems. Bundesbank head Weidmann, for example, is desperately fighting the European Central Bank (ECB) decision to buy unlimited quantities of sovereign bonds from crisis-ridden countries as a way of lowering their borrowing costs. In addition, the Bundesbank has already pumped nearly €700 billion ($906 billion) into primarily southern European countries as part of the euro-zone central bank transfers known as Target II.
Germany's gold reserves are currently worth some €144 billion and are not stored "with dubious business partners," as Thiele stresses, but rather with "highly respected central bankers."
Special Connection
There is in fact nothing unusual about how Germany deals with the precious metal. Many other central banks store a portion of their gold reserves abroad. The Netherlands, for example, places its trust in its colleagues in Ottawa, New York and London.
But the relationship Germans have with their gold is a special one. Germany hoards nearly 3,600 metric tons of the precious metal -- only the US has more. Much of this gold treasure was amassed under the Bretton Woods international monetary system, in which the dollar served as the world's key currency and was directly convertible to fixed quantities of gold.
Before the gold standard was terminated in 1971, the current account surpluses generated by Germany's "economic miracle" were partially balanced out in gold. Thousands of US bars of gold alone were transferred to German ownership.
But since the euro is not backed by gold, such vast reserves are actually no longer necessary. Nevertheless, the Germans continue to resolutely defend them -- and every attempt to use this treasure has been met with dismay.
There has been no lack of proposals: Former German President Roman Herzog wanted to sell the gold to form the basis for a capital-based nursing care insurance scheme. In 2002, FDP parliamentary floor leader Rainer Brüderle proposed a fund for natural disasters. Former Bundesbank head Ernst Welteke added to the debate by suggesting the foundation of a national educational fund. But none of these ideas were ever taken seriously.
Most recently, German Chancellor Angela Merkel of the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) shot down an idea by the euro partners to use the reserves as collateral for euro bonds.
Strict Security
As a result, in addition to safeguarding the reserves of over 60 countries, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York continues to hold 1,536 metric tons of German gold -- or nearly half of Berlin's reserves. This enormous hoard of gold is stored in the fifth subfloor of the bank's building on Liberty Street, 25 meters (80 feet) below street level, and 15 meters below sea level. According to the bank's website, the vault rests on the bedrock of Manhattan Island.
Tourists are allowed to venture below street level to see the vault. After descending in an elevator, they stand in front of an enormous steel cylinder that pivots like a door in a 140-ton steel-and-concrete frame. But not even the owners are allowed to view their own gold. According to the Federal Audit Office report, the Fed explained that "in the interest of security and of the control process" no "viewings" are possible.
Finally, in 2007, "following numerous enquiries," Bundesbank staff members were allowed to see the facility, but they reportedly only made it to the anteroom of the German reserves.
In fact, auditors from the Bundesbank made a second visit in May 2011. This time one of the nine compartments was also opened, in which the German gold bars are densely stacked. A few were pulled out and weighed. But this part of the report has been blacked out -- out of consideration for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
"I would like more transparency on the issue," says Bundesbank board member Thiele. The Americans are very sensitive, though, when it comes to security procedures in their gold storage facilities. In their second major depository, the legendary Fort Knox, practically no one in recent decades has been allowed to view the gold reserves.
Fuelling Legends
Such intense secrecy fuels legends. Many conspiracy theorists have suspected for decades that the German gold has long since disappeared. Others believe that it has been lent out. They contend that there are only promissory notes of little worth stored in the bank's vaults.
Another myth that has been making the rounds in nationalist-oriented German circles is that the US refused to hand over the treasure and threatened during the Cold War to withdraw its troops from Germany if the Germans demanded their gold back. Former Bundesbank head Karl Blessing, according to the theory, had to provide the US written confirmation that he would never do such a thing.
This letter, as it happens, actually exists, as Blessing confirmed in his last interview with SPIEGEL in 1971 -- except it doesn't concern the German gold, but rather US gold reserves. Until 1971, every dollar could be exchanged for the precious metal. Blessing thus promised the US Federal Reserve that he would no longer convert the colossal German dollar reserves to gold because this would have caused the currency's value to plummet.
Today, this historic document is even available online. But that hasn't silenced those who oppose stockpiling German gold abroad. Instead, the debate over a collapse of strictly paper-based currency is experiencing a renaissance -- as is the dispute over the gold reserves. Even Green Party financial expert Gerhard Schick has joined the fray: "I think the question of how much gold is available in an emergency is a valid concern."
 |
| 德國和其他國家一樣存儲黃金在世界各地的各央行。 |
Outlandish Idea
From a purely logistical perspective, though, returning the reserves seems outlandish. One cannot simply pack 1,500 tons of gold into an Airbus A380 super-jumbo jet and fly it back to Germany.
The Bundesbank also objects to this notion for another reason. It says the gold is supposed to act as an emergency buffer. In the extreme situation of a currency collapse, the bankers say that the gold bars could easily and quickly be exchanged on location for pounds or dollars to pay urgent bills.
In a bid to calm the debate, the Bundesbank has pledged to bring back and inspect 150 tons of gold from abroad over the next three years. Furthermore, there are plans to count and weigh the gold bars stored in one of the nine chambers at the Fed in New York -- although no date has been set for this.
Bundesbank board member Thiele was also recently in New York where he took a look behind one of the vault doors. He had good news for the members of the parliamentary budget committee: "There was no paper in there, just gold."
But that's not enough for CSU politician Gauweiler. He's only prepared to put the matter to rest when the central bank has thoroughly inspected all the German reserves throughout the entire world. His credo: "The Bundesbank is independent, but it can't do what it wants."
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