港樓泡危 恐失萬億

各國相繼放水，令亞太區資產泡沫愈脹愈大，綜合專家意見認為，區內樓市離世紀泡沫爆破為時不遠，香港、澳門、新加坡、馬來西亞屬最高危，特別是香港。有分析認為，本港截至去年十一月底，未償還按揭貸款總額達8,569億元，因部分業主未承做按揭，部分則承做較少按揭。若如九七年金融風暴，樓價數年間瀉五成，蒸發財富勢逾萬億元，過去一年入市的買家即時淪為負資產。

據《經濟學人》調查顯示，二十個全球主要城市過去一年樓價漲幅，香港排首位，累漲21.8%，相對○七年第四季，更累漲86.8%，為全球樓價反彈最快城市；與此同時，美國顧問機構Demographia調查顯示，香港連續第三年獲選為最難置業城市，樓價負擔相當家庭全年收入13.5倍，現時本港樓市可謂位高勢危。

未償還按貸達8569億

本港樓市泡沫何時爆破？專家認為，關鍵在於美國會否提前加息，以及歐美經濟會否再現危機，而日本倣效美國推無限量寬，更加速資產泡沫爆破危險。經濟學家關焯照警告，若聯儲局提前於一四年加息，屆時本港樓價最少瀉三成。惟他相信不會如九七年般差，因當時接連有不同事件發生，加上現時香港樓市與銀行體系能承受，屆時最受影響會是近年「摸頂」入市買家。

Neutron INV Partners首席投資總監張一鳴表示，多國無限量寬增加亞洲區資金流動性，令資產泡沫「火上加油」，觸發亞洲區樓市更熾熱，因亞太區樓市規模較細，較容易發生「爆煲」風險。他續說，若美國提前加息，本港銀行必會跟隨，令業主供款負擔增加；再者，本港銀行毋須等待美國加息，可因應其他因素提早調高息率。他又批評，港府房屋政策錯誤，樓價顯著調整必然受「黑天鵝」事件觸發，當中風險難以計算，更難估計何時會出現。

金管局數據顯示，截至去年十一月底，未償還按揭貸款總額已達8,569億元，因不少業主沒有承做按揭，部分則承做較少按揭，部分則已「供斷」。若樓價下挫五成，蒸發的財富勢超過一萬億元，數字十分驚人，首當其衝相信是近年「摸頂」入市買家。

數據又顯示，去年首十一個月，本港新取用按揭貸款共69,869宗，涉約1,730億元，料去年全年新取用按揭貸款額達1,980億元，全年住宅新取用按揭貸款宗數約八萬宗，假設全部按揭為樓價七成，若樓價瀉五成，該批買家不但隨時變成負資產，物業價值合共蒸發逾千億元。

澳門星馬同屬高危
鄰近香港的澳門，樓市泡沫爆破風險同樣較大，關焯照認為，這是因為澳門居民置業負擔能力較低，然而樓價持續攀升。據利嘉閣資料，去年第四季住宅平均呎價達5,509元，與對上一年第四季平均呎價3,857元比較，按年狂飆43%。

此外，新加坡上季私人住宅物業價格指數升1.8%至211.90點，創新高；全年整體樓價攀升2.8%，結果新加坡政府早前推新一輪買家特別印花稅來壓制炒風。資金因而轉至鄰邦馬來西亞，馬國地產代理員協會稱，當地炒家湧現，料今年樓價會續被炒高，顯示兩地樓市泡沫風險同樣不可小覷。

金甲蟲未來一季或作最後反撲

信報 市場一周 陳子豪
2013-01-26

金甲蟲未來一季或作最後反撲 

2011 年9 月初現貨金一度急漲至每盎斯1924 美元水平，升勢之急引起廣泛關注，當時看好金市的評論比比皆是，大行亦紛紛上調目標價至2000 美元，以迎合可能出現的新一輪升浪。可惜事與願違，金價於同月月底戲劇性地跌穿1600 美元，令投資者的心情由天堂跌入谷底。

過去18 個月，現貨金於1520 美元至1800 美元之間徘徊，是自2008 年後最長的一次調整期，同時去年全年升幅僅8%，是過往11 年來最少，反映大趨勢已有所改變。

經濟復蘇投資者轉軚

倫敦貴金屬協會（London Bullion Market Association, LBMA）每年均邀請成員對金市進行預測，2012 年冠軍Rene Hochreiter 近日直言黃金牛市已經告終，預期今年平均價為1600 美元，高位1700 美元。主要原因是美國經濟復蘇將轉移投資者視線，而在工業需求帶動下，白金、鈀金及白銀表現可看高一線，其中白金對黃金出現溢價的情況可能持續5 至6年。

本欄曾多次對金市作出分析，對上一次是去年5 月（詳見2012 年5 月19 日〈預期與現實反差擴大金價終歸作出修正」一文〉。

筆者主要觀點是黃金避險與抗通脹角色褪色，以及市場過分誇大聯儲局的印鈔行動。

所謂的避險角色褪色是指市場的系統性風險已經大大降低。歐洲央行行長德拉吉本周發表勝利宣言，指出由於歐洲央行去年果斷行動，籠罩歐羅區最黑暗的烏雲已經消退。的而且確，歐豬國家國債孳息自去年9 月起明顯回落，歐債危機亦已由威脅全球信貸市場穩定的計時炸彈，演變成只影響區內經濟的地區性問題。

避險抗通脹功能減退

至於抗通脹方面，若通脹壓力溫和及不如想像般大，將對金市產生負面影響，這亦是金價久久未能重回1900 美元的原因。從數據反映，雖然聯儲局去年再推量寬措施，美國通脹率暫時未有受到刺激，最新公布的12 月CPI 按月持平，按年則上升1.7%。筆者認為量寬有助刺激通脹及通脹預期，但由於QE 已推出多輪，市場亦反映有關消息，因此，對通脹與金價的利好作用較先前減弱。

輿論一向認為美國正瘋狂印鈔，金價必因此受惠，這點筆者一直有保留。翻查聯儲局資產負債表中，相信是美鈔的一項—Federal Reserve Notes, net of F.R. Bank holdings，截至今年1 月16 日，其總額為1.11 萬億美元， 較2009 年3 月（ 亦即QE1 出台當月的0.86 萬億美元）上升29%，金額上升速度絕對談不上瘋狂。


雖然聯儲局資產負債表規模是2008 年初的3 倍有多（增長超過兩倍），但大部分似乎是源自信貸擴張（自雷曼倒閉後急增），而非濫印鈔票，如果資產負債表擴張全由印鈔帶動，通脹理應遠高於現水平。

中長線跑輸其他資產

Oxford Economics 於2010 年曾發表報告，以1976 年至2010 年的數據為基礎，分析影響金價的各種因素，並且估計金市於下列四種情況下，對比股票、債券、房地產及現金的長期表現（2011 至2015 年），頗具參

考價值：

（一）基本情況—全球經濟穩步復蘇、金融市場壓力紓緩、各國貨幣政策逐步正常化，通脹溫和發展以及美元輕微上升。

（二）通縮—歐羅區國家債務違約、金融市場壓力急升、發達國家步入衰退、新興國家經濟增長大幅放緩，多國面對通縮且資產價格大跌。

（三）滯漲—油價攀升至

每桶150 美元水平、工資上升壓力增加、全球整體通脹率升至5% 、多國央行大幅加息，經濟增長呆滯及金融市場壓力上升。

（四）高通脹—油價攀升

至每桶200 美元水平並刺激工資與物價螺旋式上升、全球通脹急升至6%、金融市場壓力急升、經濟增長最初較預期快，但其後隨着央行大幅加息，各國紛紛步入衰退。

報告指出於情況（四）下金價表現將會最佳，情況（二）表現中性，情況（三）較差，情況（一）則最差。報告預計出現情況（一）的機會最大，意味金市中長期表現跑輸其他四類資產。事實上，現時形勢正與情況（一）吻合。

值得注意的是，印度周一宣布將黃金與白金進口稅由4%上調至6%，金市對此壞消息全無反應。

隨着美國民主、共和兩黨對財赤及債務上限的討論進入關鍵時刻，加上高盛本月中「吹雞」，調高三個月黃金目標價至1825 美元，金甲蟲或伺機作出最後反撲，但難以扭轉金市中長期跑輸大市的格局。

Gold Price

Price is dropping gradually.

軟黃金

頂級冬蟲草價比黃金

冬蟲夏草貴過黃金！被譽為「軟黃金」的冬蟲夏草，在歲晚的價格猛漲一成以上，以去年為例，內地批發價每公斤漲約五千至一萬元人民幣，其中最名貴的川草一等蟲草，每斤價格高達廿一萬元人民幣（折合約廿六萬多元港幣），已超越現時的黃金價格。

保健藥材需求增

遇竊藥行廿多年前在紅磡區開業，至二○○○年始搬到現址，店東兼註冊中醫師陳賀濤昨如常開舖及應診，他稱今次是首次遭爆竊，幸最後沒有損失，讚揚警方的效率。他認為匪徒的目標為冬蟲夏草，因店內尚放有多款名貴藥材，包括每斤四萬多元的鰵魚膠、燕窩及鹿尾羓等，「幾個賊入嚟偷走五樽冬蟲草就走，其他咩都無摷過。」陳指，險被盜走的冬蟲夏草每両售價由九千多元至一萬六千元。

自沙士後，市民對保健藥材需求大增，對呼吸系統及對肺腎有療效的冬蟲夏草更成搶手貨，加上內地經濟好，內地人搶購冬蟲草，令售價狂飆，頂級貨每斤售價已逾廿六萬港元，即每両約一萬六千元，比現時每両一萬五千七百元的九九金價格還要高。

憧憬放水 金價闖1700美元

金價闖1700美元

市場憧憬日本央行擴大量化寬鬆措施，消息刺激商品價格造好。現貨金價格上試每盎斯1700美元水平，昨最多曾升0.43%，報每盎斯1691.5美元。現貨銀價格亦上漲，昨曾高見每盎斯曾升至每盎斯32.11美元，接近一個月高位，而且錄得連續六日上升，是去年1月以來最長的升浪。白金價格亦曾升0.6%至每盎斯1679.75美元。

為什麼德國希望看到其國在美國的黃金

Why Germany Wants to See its US Gold

紐約聯邦儲備銀行持有1,536噸的德金

Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann wanted to personally convince Peter Gauweiler that the German gold was still where it should be. Early this summer, the head of Germany's central bank took the obstinate politician from the conservative Christian Social Union (CSU), a party that is a member of the government coalition in Berlin, and a number of his colleagues into the Bundesbank's inner sanctum: the gold vault.

There, 6,000 gold bars are stacked on industrial-strength shelves in a purpose-built building in Frankfurt. An additional 76,000 bars of bullion are stored in four safe boxes, in sealed containers.

But even this personal inspection wasn't enough to reassure the visiting member of parliament -- on the contrary: "The Bundesbank monitors its domestic gold in an exemplary fashion," Gauweiler says, "and this makes it all the more incomprehensible that the bank doesn't look after its reserves abroad."

For quite some time now, Gauweiler has been pestering the government and the Bundesbank with questions concerning where and how the country's reserves are stored, and how often they are checked. He has submitted requests and commissioned reports on the topic.

Last week, Gauweiler celebrated his greatest triumph to date in his gold campaign, which has been a source of some amusement for many fellow German politicians: A secret report by the Federal Audit Office had been made public -- and it contained stern criticism of the German central bank in Frankfurt. The Bonn-based auditors urged a better inventory system, including quality checks.

This demand, which even the bank's inspectors saw as nothing more than routine, alarmed the Berlin political establishment. Indeed, the partially blacked-out report read like the prologue to an espionage thriller in which the stunned central bankers could end up standing in front of empty vaults in the US.

'Grotesque Debate'

For decades, German central bankers have contented themselves with written affirmations from their American colleagues that the gold still remains where it is said to be stored. According to the report, the bar list from New York stems from "1979/1980." The report also noted that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York refuses to allow the gold's owners to view their own reserves.

Not surprisingly, this prompted strong reactions in Berlin: The relevant Bundesbank board member Carl-Ludwig Thiele was summoned to Berlin to provide an explanation to the parliamentary budget committee. Heinz-Peter Haustein of the business-friendly Free Democratic Party (FDP) was even quoted by Germany's mass-circulation Bild newspaper as saying that "all the gold has to be shipped back."

The Bundesbank's otherwise reserved Thiele said that he found at least "part of the debate" to be "rather grotesque." His financial institution currently has more pressing problems. Bundesbank head Weidmann, for example, is desperately fighting the European Central Bank (ECB) decision to buy unlimited quantities of sovereign bonds from crisis-ridden countries as a way of lowering their borrowing costs. In addition, the Bundesbank has already pumped nearly €700 billion ($906 billion) into primarily southern European countries as part of the euro-zone central bank transfers known as Target II.

Germany's gold reserves are currently worth some €144 billion and are not stored "with dubious business partners," as Thiele stresses, but rather with "highly respected central bankers."

Special Connection

There is in fact nothing unusual about how Germany deals with the precious metal. Many other central banks store a portion of their gold reserves abroad. The Netherlands, for example, places its trust in its colleagues in Ottawa, New York and London.

But the relationship Germans have with their gold is a special one. Germany hoards nearly 3,600 metric tons of the precious metal -- only the US has more. Much of this gold treasure was amassed under the Bretton Woods international monetary system, in which the dollar served as the world's key currency and was directly convertible to fixed quantities of gold.

Before the gold standard was terminated in 1971, the current account surpluses generated by Germany's "economic miracle" were partially balanced out in gold. Thousands of US bars of gold alone were transferred to German ownership.

But since the euro is not backed by gold, such vast reserves are actually no longer necessary. Nevertheless, the Germans continue to resolutely defend them -- and every attempt to use this treasure has been met with dismay.

There has been no lack of proposals: Former German President Roman Herzog wanted to sell the gold to form the basis for a capital-based nursing care insurance scheme. In 2002, FDP parliamentary floor leader Rainer Brüderle proposed a fund for natural disasters. Former Bundesbank head Ernst Welteke added to the debate by suggesting the foundation of a national educational fund. But none of these ideas were ever taken seriously.

Most recently, German Chancellor Angela Merkel of the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) shot down an idea by the euro partners to use the reserves as collateral for euro bonds.

Strict Security

As a result, in addition to safeguarding the reserves of over 60 countries, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York continues to hold 1,536 metric tons of German gold -- or nearly half of Berlin's reserves. This enormous hoard of gold is stored in the fifth subfloor of the bank's building on Liberty Street, 25 meters (80 feet) below street level, and 15 meters below sea level. According to the bank's website, the vault rests on the bedrock of Manhattan Island.

Tourists are allowed to venture below street level to see the vault. After descending in an elevator, they stand in front of an enormous steel cylinder that pivots like a door in a 140-ton steel-and-concrete frame. But not even the owners are allowed to view their own gold. According to the Federal Audit Office report, the Fed explained that "in the interest of security and of the control process" no "viewings" are possible.

Finally, in 2007, "following numerous enquiries," Bundesbank staff members were allowed to see the facility, but they reportedly only made it to the anteroom of the German reserves.

In fact, auditors from the Bundesbank made a second visit in May 2011. This time one of the nine compartments was also opened, in which the German gold bars are densely stacked. A few were pulled out and weighed. But this part of the report has been blacked out -- out of consideration for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

"I would like more transparency on the issue," says Bundesbank board member Thiele. The Americans are very sensitive, though, when it comes to security procedures in their gold storage facilities. In their second major depository, the legendary Fort Knox, practically no one in recent decades has been allowed to view the gold reserves.

Fuelling Legends

Such intense secrecy fuels legends. Many conspiracy theorists have suspected for decades that the German gold has long since disappeared. Others believe that it has been lent out. They contend that there are only promissory notes of little worth stored in the bank's vaults.

Another myth that has been making the rounds in nationalist-oriented German circles is that the US refused to hand over the treasure and threatened during the Cold War to withdraw its troops from Germany if the Germans demanded their gold back. Former Bundesbank head Karl Blessing, according to the theory, had to provide the US written confirmation that he would never do such a thing.

This letter, as it happens, actually exists, as Blessing confirmed in his last interview with SPIEGEL in 1971 -- except it doesn't concern the German gold, but rather US gold reserves. Until 1971, every dollar could be exchanged for the precious metal. Blessing thus promised the US Federal Reserve that he would no longer convert the colossal German dollar reserves to gold because this would have caused the currency's value to plummet.

Today, this historic document is even available online. But that hasn't silenced those who oppose stockpiling German gold abroad. Instead, the debate over a collapse of strictly paper-based currency is experiencing a renaissance -- as is the dispute over the gold reserves. Even Green Party financial expert Gerhard Schick has joined the fray: "I think the question of how much gold is available in an emergency is a valid concern."

德國和其他國家一樣存儲黃金在世界各地的各央行。

Outlandish Idea

From a purely logistical perspective, though, returning the reserves seems outlandish. One cannot simply pack 1,500 tons of gold into an Airbus A380 super-jumbo jet and fly it back to Germany.

The Bundesbank also objects to this notion for another reason. It says the gold is supposed to act as an emergency buffer. In the extreme situation of a currency collapse, the bankers say that the gold bars could easily and quickly be exchanged on location for pounds or dollars to pay urgent bills.

In a bid to calm the debate, the Bundesbank has pledged to bring back and inspect 150 tons of gold from abroad over the next three years. Furthermore, there are plans to count and weigh the gold bars stored in one of the nine chambers at the Fed in New York -- although no date has been set for this.
Bundesbank board member Thiele was also recently in New York where he took a look behind one of the vault doors. He had good news for the members of the parliamentary budget committee: "There was no paper in there, just gold."

But that's not enough for CSU politician Gauweiler. He's only prepared to put the matter to rest when the central bank has thoroughly inspected all the German reserves throughout the entire world. His credo: "The Bundesbank is independent, but it can't do what it wants."

鷹揚金幣銷量升67%

保值更強　鷹揚金幣銷量升67%
金幣閃爆　投資者熱捧

全球五大投資貨幣之一的鷹揚金幣，今年1月銷量大升67%至12.7萬盎斯。美國鷹揚銀幣更因銷量太好，導致供不應求，美國鑄幣局需在本月底前要暫時停售該款銀幣。此外，備受投資者追捧的澳洲鴻運金幣的批發和零售銷售按年分別躍升35%及40%。分析指，投資者追捧金幣反映市場對實體金有需求，而且投資者非獨沽一味捧黃金，並瞄準現貨銀或其他貴金屬。

美國鑄幣局指，截至1月18日止，美國鷹揚金幣1月銷量12.7萬盎斯、共24.1萬枚；遠多過上月的7.6萬盎斯。美國鷹揚銀幣1月銷量601萬盎斯，接近去年創下歷史高位611萬盎斯，也遠高過上月的164萬盎斯。

鷹揚銀幣缺貨需停售

由於市場對鷹揚銀幣需求過盛，美國鑄幣局出現貨源短缺，要暫停發售，冀本月28日或之前恢復發售鷹揚銀幣。
世界五大著名投資貨幣之一的澳洲鴻運金幣，其市場需求亦有增無減。澳洲柏斯鑄幣廠的報告指，自2013年澳洲鴻運金幣於去年10月推出至今，銷售按年升40%。報告指，澳洲鴻運金幣需求大升，除了北美和中國兩大客戶外，香港、新加坡和台灣對該金幣的需求同樣殷切。而澳洲鴻運金幣在環球金幣市佔率由前年的7%倍增至14%。
此外，有分析指投資者熱捧金幣主要因為金價升幅越來越少。金價雖保持連續12年升浪，但目前現貨金價格較前年9月創下的歷史高位每盎斯1900美元水平低12%。此外，去年現貨金全年累積升幅僅7.1%，創08年以來最少升幅。而按現貨金目前每盎斯1685美元水平計，一盎斯鷹揚金幣最新報1745美元，對現貨金的溢價達3.5%，故令投資者認為買金幣更保值。

較現貨金溢價達3.5%

在金價升勢疲軟下，德銀分析報告認為，驅使投資者轉移至買現貨銀。而券商Lear Capital行政總裁Scott Carter則指，市場擔心美國債務上限和擔心美元回落，推動了市場對現貨金或現貨銀需求，而且投資者更不再只追捧黃金，投資貴金屬更講求多元化。巴克萊表示，雖然今年銀供應仍充裕，並足以支持6441噸的市場需求，預測投資者對現貨銀需求可持續。

Gold and silver bullion on the move

The price movement of gold and silver often attract much attention. When prices make a noticeable increase, it regularly leads to perma bulls calling for the next great explosion in precious metals. On the other hand, any dips or corrections lead to critics calling for an end to the 12-year bull market. Both sides are debatable, but there is no denying that physical bullion made impressive moves this past week.

On Wednesday, the Bundesbank confirmed reports and announced it will repatriate a portion of its foreign gold reserves. By 2020, the central bank intends to store half of Germany’s gold reserves in its own vaults within the country, compared to only 31 percent now. The other half will remain in New York and London. The plan will remove 300 tonnes of gold from New York, reducing Germany’s percentage of reserves held at the New York Federal Reserve from 45 percent to 37 percent. Another 374 tonnes will be relocated from Paris to Frankfurt, which removes all of Germany’s gold held in France’s capital.

Central banks have shown a great deal of interest in gold over the past few years. For the first-time in decades, central banks across the globe became net buyers of the precious metal in 2009. Last year, central bank purchases increased 17 percent to 536 metric tons, according to Thomas Reuters GFMS. This represents the biggest addition to gold reserves in 48 years. The organization also expects central banks to add another 280 tons in the first half of 2013.

Gold is not the only precious metal making moves this week. The iShares Silver Trust, which is the biggest exchange-traded fund for silver, added 572 tons of the metal. It is the biggest increase in assets for the BlackRock managed fund since December 2007. The ETF has received inflows of more than $600 million this week, leading all ETFs in the marketplace. According to Bloomberg and Barclays, global investment through all silver-backed exchange-traded products is at a record 19,114 tons.

Demand in silver coins is also showing strength. On Thursday, the U.S. Mint suspended sales of the new American Silver Eagle. In a statement to authorized purchasers, the Mint explains, “The United States Mint has temporarily sold out of 2013 American Eagle Silver Bullion coins. As a result, sales are suspended until we can build up an inventory of these coins. Sales will resume on or about the week of January 28, 2013, via the allocation process.”

The 2013 American Silver Eagle was initially released on January 7, 2013. On the first day of availability, the Mint received more than 3.9 million orders, the highest one-day of sales in the history of the program. According to the latest information on the Mint’s website, sales have reached about 6 million coins for January and are on pace to surpass the all-time high of 6.1 million coins set in January 2012.

Gold Price

No significant change on the price of gold.

Basel III Accord

The Price Of Gold Is Headed Much Higher - Here's Why

The Basel III Accord (BA3) is scheduled to be implemented starting in January 2013. As part of this agreement, gold will be elevated to a tier 1 bank reserve asset. Because of this, gold will be de facto reasserted into the global financial system as a currency. This should add a new dimension to the ongoing bull market in gold and silver, as banks globally now have incentive to accumulate and hold gold as a valuable, liquid asset which can be leveraged as an operating asset.

The BA3 is the latest iteration of a global regulatory standard that governs bank capital and risk exposure. To summarize, BA3 will require banks globally to hold a higher amount of capital as "reserve" capital. This reserve capital is what theoretically buffers banks from the volatility and risk embedded in holding business assets. Reserve capital is the foundation upon which the fractional banking system rests. You can read a good summary of what BA3 does here: Basel III Accord.

The most interesting aspect of BA3 from my perspective as a precious metals investor is that it elevates the reserve status of gold from Tier 3 to Tier 1. A Tier 3 asset can only use 50% of its assessed market value to count as part of a bank's capital reserve valuation. This is typically for illiquid, hard to value assets like OTC derivatives. With a Tier 1 asset, the bank can count 100% of the asset's value toward its reserve calculation. The Tier 1 status is used sparingly for the most liquid, easy to value assets in the world: cash, coins and highly-rated sovereign-issued bonds (Treasuries, etc) -- and now gold.

That BA3 elevates gold to the Tier 1 status is highly significant to precious metals investors because it de facto imbues gold with currency status. Furthermore, it unequivocally differentiates gold from the general basket of "commodities," into which gold had been tossed since 1974, with the introduction of Comex gold futures.

In order to understand why this could be a signal that the price of gold is headed much higher, it helps to put use of Tier 1 assets in the context of global banking system liquidity mechanisms. The primary short-term liquidity funding mechanism is the repo transaction. Briefly, when a bank needs capital for short-term liquidity purposes, it engages in a repo transaction with a Central Bank. What happens is that the bank puts up collateral and receives a like-value amount of cash at a slight discount in order to build an "interest" charge into the transactions. When the term of the repo expires, the bank remits 100% cash and gets back its collateral. Since this is basically a swap of what is considered a largely riskless asset for short-term use of fungible cash, you can understand why only cash, coins and triple-A sovereign paper -- and now gold -- have been accepted as collateral for repo deals.

Up until recently, the ability to use assets below Tier 1 as repo collateral was limited in scope. But the ongoing financial distress of banks, especially in Europe, has created a severe shortage in repo-worthy collateral. Most repo-eligible assets are continuously pledged to Central Banks as soon as they become available. This is a well-documented problem and has forced the ECB and the Fed to consider using riskier assets in an attempt to avoid a banking system liquidity crisis.

Enter the newly minted "Tier 1" gold as a banking asset. Although it is the case that not a lot of banks actually own gold as part of their balance sheet, gold's availability as a liquid Tier 1 asset, among other characteristics, will make it quite valuable as a balance sheet asset for banks.

This is where it gets interesting.To the extent that a bank can hold and use gold as a repo-ready reserve asset, gold's value as repo collateral increases 100% with every dollar the price of gold increases. Think about that for a minute. If banks can convert lesser quality assets into the ownership of physical gold, they'll be incentivized to accumulate gold because it can be used for the purposes of repo funding and business lending.

If my analysis is correct, the price of gold will go higher from sheer demand/supply dynamics, but also because it will be in the entire global banking system's best interest from a balance sheet standpoint for the price of gold to move higher.

The purpose of this analysis was to lay the framework for a fundamental reason outside of the mainstream thinking as to why the price of gold is headed much higher. Look at it as an "information edge" that has not been discussed in public forums. Now the question is, how can we take advantage of this "information edge" besides the outright buying and safekeeping of physical gold?

My next article will discuss some ways in which you can take advantage of the next move higher in gold. GLD is the most basic way, but I will also discuss some leveraged versions of GLD, plus some hedging strategies. In addition, I will present a couple of ideas on junior mining stocks that are considerably undervalued.